Emeka wins on Homecoming Saturday
Posted by Brett on 02/06/2010Boxscore
Score: 104-99 New Orleans Hornets
Charlotte Bobcats record: 24-25
Offensive Efficiency: 111.2
Defensive Efficiency: 116.9
Meritorious Player: Nazr Mohammed, as he played Emeka Okafor to a virtual standstill. Nazr finished with 15 points on 7 of 9 shooting, 5 rebounds, and a block in his 25 minutes. Emeka, for comparison had 16 on 10 attempts, 7 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 32 minutes.
The Bobcats came out for the second half like they had enjoyed a nice turkey dinner at half time: Sluggish and lazy. It led to a 36-21 advantage in the quarter for the Hornets, turning a 10 points Bobcats lead into the final 5 point margin the Bobcats would enjoy at the conclusion of the contest. Those 36 third quarter points came on just 24 possessions for the Hornets, an efficiency of 150 - and while it felt like it was fueled by a rash of Bobcats turnovers, the Cats only had 4 in the quarter, right around their pace for the game, finishing with 11 as a team.
Oh, and since I mentioned turnovers, might as well mention the other negative in that pair: Free throws. The Bobcats managed just 18 of 27 from the stripe for the game, negating an advantage of 6 additional free throw attempts on the Hornets by making 1 fewer. The primary culprit - Ronald Murray, who managed to go 0-5, including 4 straight misses in about 4 minutes time late in the fourth. One other free throw note: Boris Diaw went to the line 6 times on the night, making all 6. Also, all 6 were in the first half, when Diaw was aggressive in going to the rim. Boris looked like one of the primary victims of tryptophan in the second half, as he passed up open looks and dribbled into the defense without looking at the rim.
The Bobcats fall a game back under .500, so that is the bad news. The good news? They are off until Tuesday, giving them some time to recuperate from the road trip...and Tyson Chandler is hoping to play Tuesday night as well.
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Charlotte vs New Orleans Preview
Posted by Brett on 02/06/2010Who: Charlotte Bobcats vs New Orleans Hornets
What: NBA Basketball - Bobcats Home Game
When: 02/06/2010 at 7pm EST
Where: Live at Time Warner Cable Arena in the Queen City or on SportsSouth
The Matchup:
| Record | Offensive Efficiency | Defensive Efficiency | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlotte | 24-24 | 103.4 (23) | 101.4 (2) | 91.3 (28) |
| New Orleans | 26-24 | 105.7 (16) | 107.3 (19) | 93.1 (20) |
Previous Meetings:
NONE
Injuries:
Charlotte: Tyson Chandler - Unlikely; Gerald Wallace - Likely
New Orleans: Chris Paul - OUT
Starting Lineups
| Bobcats | Hornets | |
|---|---|---|
| PG | Raymond Felton | Darren Collison |
| SG | Stephen Jackson | Marcus Thornton |
| SF | Gerald Wallace | Peja+Stojakovic |
| PF | Boris Diaw | David West |
| C | Nazr Mohammed | Emeka Okafor |
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You mean Gerald isn't better than LeBron?
Posted by Brett on 02/04/2010When Matt Moore did a behemoth of a post a couple weeks back on player usage and PER for every team in the league, I got this nagging feeling, like there was something I was supposed to have done. But what was it? I had paid all my bills for the month, I had brushed my teeth, and I had even remembered to bump the thermostat down for the night. And then it hit me: I was supposed to have done something with the player swap tool I created back in the off-season. Sometime. Something. I had never really decided on what was the first improvement I wanted to make or when I should get around to it. But Moore's terrific post got me motivated (and the upcoming trade deadline was another slight push) – and provided the inspiration for the focus of the change.
Efficiency and usage are the key (and practically only) components of the player swap tool. I created it to crudely calculate how the potential addition of Allen Iverson might have impacted the Bobcats performance and then to calculate the impact of the actual addition of Tyson Chandler/subtraction of Emeka Okafor. It's purpose and design were simple: If one player uses this many possessions at this efficiency, how will the team's numbers change if a new player with a different usage and efficiency comes in? And for an off-the-cuff number, it did ok – it reasonably reflected the difference in how the Bobcats played with D.J. Augustin on the court for Raymond Felton and it came close to calculating how Orlando slid a bit with Rafer Alston coming in to replace Jameer Nelson. But...
It is kind of a big but – it thinks the Bobcats would be worse with LeBron James than Gerald Wallace this season. And as big of a Crash fan as I am, that is preposterous. Now, it is not the tool's fault: It just does not know any better. It was designed to say that if a new player comes in, the rest of the team will continue to perform at the same efficiency they have previously. But when you add a player like LeBron James, things are a little different – for one, he uses about 15 more possessions per 100 team possessions than Gerald. All of a sudden the rest of the Bobcats are responsible for splitting just 65 possessions, instead of 80 – hmm, wonder if that may make their jobs a little bit easier?
No surprises: It does. A great example is Raymond Felton's performance from last year to this year. Last season, his usage ([fga+0.4*fta+turnovers]/100 team possessions) was 24.7 and his efficiency on those possessions (points per 100 possessions used) was just 82.0. This year, with the addition of Stephen Jackson, Ray's usage is down to 20.7 and his efficiency up to 95.0. Looking across the league, this relationship holds true – as usage goes up, efficiency goes down. This is not to say that high usage players are the lowest efficiency players – that is not the case. No, what I mean is that as an individual player is called on to shoulder an increased burden, his efficiency drops. The chart below shows the usage versus efficiency on a per game basis for every player who played at least 8 minutes in a given game.
Because it is a big blob of dots and a bit incomprehensible (there are over 11,000 data points in there) – I have the line of best fit displayed, along with its equation, indicating the negative relation between the two.
So, now, thanks to Moore's indirect motivation, the player swap tool estimates the impact of shifting responsibilities on efficiencies – a team's and a player's. If you replace LeBron with Gerald, the rest of Cleveland has some heavier lifting to do, including Gerald. Both of their efficiencies are expected to go down. However, if you place LeBron in Charlotte (or New York or whatever other fantasy fans may have), is he really going to subjugate his game? I'd be surprised – so, his usage will not change in the new tool. The change in usage and efficiency is only done against the rest of Charlotte. A similar but opposite effect is seen when moving a player like Ben Wallace: If Ben Wallace leaves Detroit to go help the Nuggets win the West, is he going to take on a larger offensive load? Doubtful – again, his usage and efficiency are predicted to stay static, while the acquiring team would see their usage go up, and their efficiency drop proportionally. The cutoffs for those kind of decisions are based on the top 10% and the bottom 20% in usage – guys who use possessions like a primary option are expected to maintain it, while guys who are currently the 6th option of the 5 men on the court remain that way (not a typo – an exaggeration – just to head off the comments).
With those changes made, sanity is restored – LeBron James coming to Charlotte in place of Gerald Wallace makes the Bobcats better. How much better? Go to the improved Player Swap Tool and find out – there is a bit less clutter on the page and a nice summary of the projected outcome. And if you want to compare the new results to the old – I still have the old tool available here: Original Player Swap Tool
(Oh, and if you see a result that makes you scratch your head, please say so – I have done a lot of testing...but bugs may have snuck through).
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Visual Breakdown of the Bobcats Breakdown
Posted by Brett on 02/04/2010I talked about it, but Sebastian out-did me and illustrates it: How the Bobcats let the Lakers off the hook. Over at NBAPlaybook.com, Sebastian diagrams the Lakers final offensive set, where Pau Gasol backs down Nazr Mohammed for an easy hook - then he points out all the little mistakes that cost the Bobcats a chance for the tie. For an inbounds play coming out of a timeout, there were a few. Go over and check it out - well worth your time. In fact, while you are there, you should go ahead and either bookmark the site or subscribe - whichever way you keep up with the internets, you will want to add it.
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Bobcats hand victory to the Lakers
Posted by Brett on 02/04/2010Boxscore
Score: 99-97 Los Angeles Lakers
Charlotte Bobcats record: 24-24
Offensive Efficiency: 115.5
Defensive Efficiency: 116.5
Meritorious Player: Nazr Mohammed - with Gerald Wallace out of the game, the Bobcats needed someone to step up and replace Gerald's effort on the boards. And did Nazr ever step up: 23 points on 15 attempts, 17 rebounds, including 9 offensive, 1 block, and solid defense on Pau Gasol/Andrew Bynum as they finished with 31 combined points on 27 attempts.
Down 3 with under 10 seconds left, coming out of a timeout, the Bobcats have a chance to cut the lead or tie. They choose option 3 - a poor pass from Stephen Jackson to Raymond Felton is batted loose, the Lakers recover, and a fast break dunk later the game is over. Yes, Ronald Murray made a 30-footer with over a second left to cut it to 2 for the final margin - but the rest of the Bobcats were discouraged enough from the previous play that they did not even find a man to pressure on the final inbounds play and the Lakers were free to ride out the final second. It was a frustrating end to a game the Bobcats competed hard in and one where there were a lot of positives.
Aside from Nazr's strong play, Stephen Jackson also took charge - 30 points on 10 of 16 from the floor, 7 rebounds, 4 assists, and 2 steals. Oh, and he helped hold (along with Stephen Graham) Kobe Bryant to just 5 points on 2-12 shooting - you know, no big deal, just the Lakers all-time leading scorer held to single-figures. Jackson recognized the Bobcats were short-handed and forced the action to a degree, and I have to admit that I was not always thrilled when the ball left his hand with the shot he decided to take - but he made most of them and the Bobcats needed for someone to be the aggressor. The other positive that I want to make sure I mention: DeSagana Diop came in and played very well defensively for the Bobcats, with 7 rebounds in just 19 minutes and some active defense in the post. He had just 2 points, two missed free throws, 1 assist and a turnover to show offensively, but against the Lakers big front court, Diop held his own.
Boris Diaw, on the other hand, just seemed ready for the road trip to be over. He picked up 2 quick fouls in the first half, another in the third, and only finally started getting into the game in the 4th, with a couple of offensive rebounds and assists. His final line: 0-4 from the field, 0-2 from the free throw line, 5 assists, 4 rebounds, 1 block, and 1 turnover. He put the Bobcats in a tough spot with the early fouls, forcing them to use Derrick Brown for extended stretches on Pau Gasol - Derrick to his credit did a solid job, but that is not a matchup the Bobcats wanted to see a lot of, since Pau can look down at the top of Derrick's head.
With the Bobcats already down 3, the final turnover was not what handed the game to the Lakers - that just sealed it. What did the Bobcats in was their close to the third quarter: They had two turnovers in the final two minutes that fueled a 6-0 Lakers run that took it from a 1 point game to 7 point margin. While the Bobcats managed to tie it back up in the 4th, they ran out of gas once the game was even and the Lakers ran off 8 straight again. In the 4th, the Lakers scored 27 points on just 20 possessions - an efficiency of 135: The Bobcats were done defensively, the result of being short-handed against a top-tier opponent at the end of a 6-game road trip. Their 14 turnovers were just enough to give the Lakers the edge they needed to seal the deal.
When the Bobcats left on this road trip, 3-3 seemed rather unlikely - now, it is disappointing? It is bound to be, because expectations can change as circumstances do. But it does not make their accomplishment less impressive - they remain at .500 and bring their road record a couple steps closer to respectability.
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I am a link manager - 02/03/10
Posted by Brett on 02/03/2010Is a new owner forthcoming for the Bobcats? Ric Bucher reports that an offer has been made and now it comes down to whether Michael Jordan wants to match it:
Former Houston Rockets president/CEO George Postolos -- whose first attempt to purchase the team, according to the Charlotte Observer, fell apart last summer -- has made a new offer that Bobcats president Michael Jordan has until the end of February to match, according to sources.A bit of disappointing news: Alexis Ajinca promising play is going on a break, as he has torn a ligament in his thumb and will undergo surgery:
-Bucher at ESPN.com
A torn ligament in Charlotte Bobcat Alexis Ajinca's right thumb will put him out for more than six weeks.
Ajinca, a French 7-footer and former first-round pick, has been with the Maine Red Claws of the NBA's Development League since late December. He hurt his thumb Jan. 27 in a D-League game against the Idaho Stampede.
-Rick Bonnell the Charlotte Observer
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Los Angeles Lakers vs Charlotte Preview
Posted by Brett on 02/03/2010Who: Los Angeles Lakers vs Charlotte Bobcats
What: NBA Basketball - Lakers Home Game
When: 02/04/2010 at 10:30pm EST
Where: Live at the Staples Center in LA or on SportsSouth
The Matchup:
| Record | Offensive Efficiency | Defensive Efficiency | Pace | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 36-12 | 108.1 (10) | 101.2 (3) | 94.8 (8) |
| Charlotte | 24-23 | 103.2 (23) | 101.1 (2) | 91.5 (27) |
Previous Meetings:
NONE
Injuries:
Los Angeles Lakers: None
Charlotte: Tyson Chandler - Still out? I have not seen a recent update on his status
Starting Lineups
| Bobcats | ||
|---|---|---|
| PG | Derek Fisher | Raymond Felton |
| SG | Kobe Bryant | Stephen Jackson |
| SF | Ron Artest | Gerald Wallace |
| PF | Pau Gasol | Boris Diaw |
| C | Andrew Bynum | Nazr Mohammed |
Here is a pretty concise summary of the Bobcats' success against the Lakers, presented in a conversation between my wife and myself last night:
Her: "So, the Bobcats next game is tomorrow, right? Who are they playing?"
Me: "Yes and the Lakers."
Her: "Oh, then the Bobcats will probably lose?"
Me: "Actually, they have won 6 of their last 7 against the Lakers."
Her: "So, they have Kobe and not much else?"
Me: "No, they won the title last year and were in the finals the year before as well. They are very good."
Her: "How do the Bobcats do so well against them, then?"
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Portland thumps lagging Bobcats
Posted by Brett on 02/02/2010Boxscore
Score: 98-79 Portland
Charlotte Bobcats record: 24-23
Offensive Efficiency: 91.9
Defensive Efficiency: 115.3
Meritorious Player: Gerald Wallace had another double-double with 17 points on 10 attempts and 10 rebounds, including 7 defensive. Crash also had 2 steals, 1 assist, and 2 turnovers.
For a team that was supposedly not satisfied with just breaking even on the road-trip, the Bobcats sure played like a team that would be satisfied breaking even on their road trip. 21 turnovers on just 87 possessions. 13 offensive rebounds for Portland to just 21 defensive rebounds for the Bobcats - that defensive rebound rate of 61.8% is their 3rd worst performance of the season. The turnover rate of 24.4% is the second worst such showing. And the final telling number: 23 triple attempts out of 64 total. That is 35.8% of their attempts being from deep - the highest that number has been all season. Oh, and it was not a case of them launching them late, in a furious bid to rally - the Bobcats attempted just 3 in the final quarter.
Final thing I am going to mention: The Bobcats had a strange sequence to end the first half. I am not sure if they just recently learned of trying to get a 2-for-1 possession advantage at the end of a quarter or what - but it sure seemed like it. After the Blazers scored with 38 seconds left, Raymond Felton pushed the ball up court, curled around a screen near the top of the lane and fired up a running, leaning jumper from 20 feet just seconds into the shot clock - it did not go in and the Blazers rebounded with 29 seconds left. After working the ball around, Martell Webster missed a look from three as the shot clock ran down - and Portland got the offensive rebound that the Bobcats had been looking for with about 5 seconds left. Fortunately for the Bobcats, Ronald Murray was able to pick off Andre Miller's pass and the Bobcats were able to get off another attempt to complete the 2-for-1 - this time the shot came about mid-court as the horn sounded. It also missed. To recap: Rather than 1 good shot, the Bobcats managed to take 2 bad shots in the final 30 seconds - and only got the second one because of a bad pass by the other team. That kind of defeats the purpose of going for the 2-for-1.
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