Bobcats vs Celtics Preview

01/06/2009

The champs are coming to Charlotte, again. Their last trip to the Queen City resulted in a loss for the Bobcats, 89-84 Celtics: Boxscore from 11/29 Game Versus Boston. This is a new year, a new Charlotte team, and a different feel coming from the men in green. In the teams' first meeting, Boston came in at 15-2 and showing no signs of a championship hangover. A little over a month later, and they are starting to show signs of mortality, going 2-4 over their last 6, including losses to the Knicks and Warriors. Possible upset brewing in CLT? Well, maybe, but the Bobcats are only 3-4 in their last 7, including losses to...you guessed it, the Warriors and Knicks. What a crazy, random happenstance.

Primary factors in the early season loss: Turnovers and Kendrick Perkins. Charlotte had 21 turnovers for the game, and while Raymond led in quantity with 6, he had more of an excuse than some others - the ball was in his hands quite a bit, with 27 possessions used by Raymond (not necessarily a good thing that night, as he shot 2-15); but at least he was not giving the ball away every other time he touched it...like some others. Each of the other starters contributed 2 turnovers a piece, with Emeka giving the ball up twice with only 7 possessions used (3 fga, 4 fta, and the 2 turnovers), and Sean nearly matching Emaka with 2 giveaways on 8 possessions used. The other primary contributor of wasted possessions would be the rookie point, D.J. Augustin with 5 turnovers on 16 possessions used. Even worse for the Bobcats, the majority of their wasted chances were not dead ball giveaways; no, the Celtics had 13 steals on the night, and that generally leads to easier opportunities at the other end of the court. Just as the Bobcats turnovers were a team effort, so were the Celtics steals - no Celtic had more than 3 steals, with 7 players having at least 1. Outside of the turnovers, the Bobcats had a solid night offensively (lipstick on a pig, I know), shooting 47.8% from the field, making 5 of 13 from deep (38.5% - solid), and grabbing 8 offensive rebounds (26% of available). Fewer turnovers tonight, and the Bobcats might improve on that 97.7 offensive efficiency from round 1.

With the turnovers discussed, that leaves the other factor I mentioned: Kendrick Perkins. Back in November, Perkins had 15 points, 12 rebounds, 2 blocks, 1 assist, and 1 steal - a very nice, well-rounded stat sheet. The problem for the Bobcats: They had held Boston's big 3 to 19, 15, and 10 points (Pierce, Allen, and KG respectively), but the Celtics wound up with 3 other double digit scorers, with Perkins leading the way at 15. As Kendrick is averaging just under 9 per game for the season, and 8.5 rebounds, his relatively big game was just enough to push the Celtics over the top in the surprisingly tight affair. When the Bobcats had done such a solid job on the core of the Celtics, it is tough to think that they lost because they let Boston's fifth option on offense push them over the top (Kendrick has topped those 15 points only 3 times this season).

Last season, the Bobcats beat the Celtics once and also lost once on a buzzer beater by Ray Allen set up by a bad turnover from the Bobcats (for completeness, they also lost by 8 and 23 in the other 2 games, but I want to be optimistic). Competitiveness against the best is a start - but we all want to see the Bobcats turn those close games into a few more wins. And there are few teams I would like to see them beat more than the Celtics...and KG. Why? Here is your answer:

D.J., as the smallest Bobcat, be prepared for KG to target you - that seems to be his M.O. this year. The rest of the squad - continue the assault on the defending champs aura of invincibility that began in Golden State and continued in New York.

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Further Reason For Optimism in Charlotte

01/05/2009

If I told you the Charlotte Bobcats had one of the 10 lineups in the league, what would you say? Probably something along the lines of "Stop playing NBA 2k9 and get back to reality" or "Yeah, top 10 worst - am I right? High five". But you would be destined to receive a self high-five, because this is no joke: The Bobcats current starting 5 has one of the best net efficiencies in the league. Let it sink in - mass hysteria, I know.

The quintet of Emeka Okafor, Boris Diaw, Gerald Wallace, Raja Bell, and Raymond Felton does not seem overwhelming, but the numbers (thus far) paint a different picture - one of not just competence but competition (for a winning record...and more?). The table below shows the top 12 lineups in the NBA by Net Efficiency (with a minimum of 200 possessions played together).


I have to admit that I was just as surprised when I noticed this as you probably are now. I did not go looking for it, I just happened to be looking at the Bobcats stats under the Stats Page and noticed that the Bobcats most used lineup happened to have a dominant net efficiency. Considering how I just did the post about the team going into 2009, this adds even more reason for optimism.

There is a big difference between this finding and "An Early Evaluation of the 2009 Bobcats"; in the post, I felt compelled to note how weak the Bobcats' recent competition had been. When I went looking for similar numbers for the Bobcats fearsome fivesome, the results were not expected. Unlike the Bobcats as a whole since the trade, who have a faced a cumulative opponent with net efficiency of -3.6 (equivalent to the Bulls), the starters have a faced a net opponent of +1.4 (Approximately the Suns). That is not light weight competition, and the Bobcats are destroying against it. For comparison sake, the Dallas' lineup above has faced a -0.8, Cleveland a -5.6, Portland a +6.0 (Side note: Do not sleep on Portland, even with the loss to the Lakers last night).

The Bobcats second most used lineup since the trade, Boris, D.J., Emeka, Gerald, and Raymond has actually been even more effective, at +19.9. They have achieved that number in only 42+ minutes, though, so were not considered for the above. It is worth noting though, and further cause for optimism in Charlotte. Now, if only the Bobcats could manage to only use 6 players for the game without diminishing results, we would really be getting somewhere. Depth is an issue for another day, though, so focus on the Bobcats having the 7th best heavily used lineup in the NBA. Feels good, doesn't it?

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Bobcats vs Bucks (2x) Recap

01/04/2009

Game 1 - 1/2/09
Score: 103-75 Milwaukee
Efficiencies:
Offensive: 80.6
Defensive: 109.6
Meritorious Player: Boris Diaw. 16 points on 12 attempts, 6 assists, 3 rebounds, 0 turnovers. The guy who had gone 5 straight game with at least 4 has 0 and the team still winds up with 23?

Game 2 - 1/3/09
Score: 102-92 Charlotte
Efficiencies:
Offensive: 113.3
Defensive: 102.2
Meritorious Player: Boris Diaw again. 21 points on 11 attempts, 7 assists, 6 rebounds1 steal, 1 block, and 5 turnovers...but the team only had 15 as a whole. The Cats were +18 with Boris on the court, with a net efficiency of +31.6.
Bobcats Record after the split: 12-22.

A tale of two cities...a tale of two wildly different games. How to explain losing by 28 one night and following that up the very next night with a 10 point (and should have been more) win over the very same team? A terribly uncomfortable locker room for visitors in Milwaukee? The Bobcats ate too much cheese before the game Friday night? I do not know the exact cause but I will see if I can isolate a few of the changes.

The most obvious difference (and the one Rufus on Fire sees as the most important): Andrew Bogut played on Friday and not on Saturday, due to back spasms. Losing your starting center is a tough blow but it is not as though it left the Bucks hurting for size - they still started a 7-footer in Dan Gadzuric and had Francisco Elson there to back him up. Even with Charlotte playing a more traditional lineup following the trade for Diaw (no moreless using Gerald Wallace at the 4 - yay), the Bobcats are not an imposing team, size-wise (or most other wise). Furthermore, Bogut hardly played a significant statistical role in Friday's beatdown. He contributed just 2 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks. Granted, Bogut is a decent defender - but so is Gadzuric, with that being Dan's primary job on the court - rebound and contest shots. Considering the lack of output on Friday from Bogut and a competent replacement (Gadzuric actually has a season on his resume with a higher PER than Bogut has achieved), Andrew's absence does not seem a solid enough explanation for a 38 point swing.

How about Michael Redd going from 31 points on 16 attempts (in just 32 and a half minutes) on Friday to a more pedestrian 17 on 14 in 35 minutes on Saturday? There was no change in personnel for the Bobcats - Raja Bell was still out so the task of slowing Redd down fell to the same group of Bobcats: Matt Carroll and Raymond Felton ( I do not remember seeing anyone else matched up for extended amounts of time - but considering he was not torching us last night, there was less reason to focus on him). Since I doubt they were up all night watching the "Better Basketball" series and miraculously improving their defense (which is generally at least passable), it falls to this: Redd got hot and shot the Bucks to a quick lead on Friday but not Saturday.

Boris Diaw picked up that mantle - scoring 17 first half points on Saturday, including a couple of difficult looks that had me yelling at him as he took them..and for him once they fell: "No, no!...Yes!" Gerald Wallace took the second half on his shoulders with 22 points after the break (after 2 in the first half). Despite missing two shots from the baseline squarely into the side of the backboard (Gerald really is a poor shooter - those were ugly), Crash stayed with it, scoring some points in transition, on postups and dribble drives. He attacked...and nearly attacked Charlie Villanueva after CV wrapped him up after Gerald ripped a rebound away from him and went up for a layup. Fortunately, no punches were thrown and Crash was fine. And all I could think about was how awesome it would be if the PA guy would play a clip from the Charlie bit my finger youtube video (The youtube video for those confused)). "Ouch, Charlie, that really hurt!" Would it have killed them to get that up on the scoreboard?

Last thing - Charlotte went from 23 turnovers to 15 and 37.6% from the field to 47.1%. Friday night, Milwaukee (and Redd in particular) was hot. Saturday, it was Charlotte's turn. Going forward, it would be nice if it was our turn a bit more often than so far. But, even the great ones never know when it might happen.

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An Early Evaluation of 2009 Bobcats

01/01/2008

Charlotte has played 9 games following the swap of Jason Richardson and Jared Dudley for Boris Diaw, Raja Bell, and Sean Singletary. While too soon for a definitive answer, it does not seem too soon to look at their impact thus far. A cursory glance at the team record would make it seem like a solid base hit, if not a homerun, as the Bobcats have gone 4-5 with their new additions. Compared to their near-cellar dwelling performance of 7-16 pre-trade, this recent "flurry" of victories would seem to cement the success of the trade. Right?

Well, not exactly. There are some extenuating circumstances to consider - such as the schedule difficulty faced. Since the trade, Charlotte has faced: Detroit and Atlanta initially (not an easy start for the new guys), but then Chicago, Memphis, Golden State, Washington, New Jersey (twice), and the Knicks. Looking at that lineup of opponents - is 4-5 something to be that excited about?

Some numbers to consider about the schedule difficulty:

Pre-trade Cumulative Opponent:
Offensive Efficiency: 103.4
Defensive Efficiency: 105.9
Net Efficiency: -2.5

The Bobcats had a net efficiency of -4.1 (offensive 101.6, defensive 105.7) against an opponent that was -2.5; we'll call that -6.6 relative to schedule (efficiency minus opponent efficiency).

Post-trade Cumulative Opponent:
Offensive Efficiency: 108.1
Defensive Efficiency: 113.4
Net Efficiency: -5.3

Since the trade, the Bobcats have a net efficiency of +2.9 (offensive 103.5, defensive 100.6). Combined with their competition's numbers, the post-trade Cats have a -2.4 net efficiency, relative to schedule.
To condense all those numbers into a more readable idea: Pre-trade, Charlotte was bad against a not great schedule. Post-trade, Charlotte has been good against a weak schedule. But not great. They still have a net efficiency relative to schedule in the negatives following the trade - meaning that while the Bobcats are beating these guys, others are beating them by more.

I will leave that dead horse now and focus on who is responsible for the turnaround that we have seen. The quick answer might seem obvious and that is to give credit to Boris Diaw. He is averaging 15 points, 7.1 rebounds, and 4.9 assists since coming to Charlotte, and the team is +4.2 with him on the floor. Good numbers to be sure, but he has not been without faults. 3.9 turnovers per game and only 1.13 points per shot - Boris has had 5 straight games with at least 4 turnovers (and 6 of 9 overall). He has had 3 games of shooting 30% or less (going 3-10, 3-14, and 3-10 in those games - not lacking for effort, for sure). I am not denying that Boris has had a positive impact - the team is passing better and the offense is scoring more efficiently (again, in part due to the schedule) since his arrival. But 2 other players are the ones who have really stepped up their production (and if you do not know who they are, I am not sure you have been paying attention).

Who else would it be but Gerald Wallace and Emeka Okafor. Since Boris' arrival, Gerald has been unreal - 20.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.8 assists, 1.5 steals, 1.3 blocks - good for a WP48 mark of .438. Prior to the trade, Gerald was at 15.3, 7.6, 2.2, 2, and 0.8, with a WP48 of .199 (I am including the WP48 number as it includes shooting efficiency and turnovers, to give a more complete sense of the turnaround - .1 is average - .438 is Chris Paul/LeBron James type territory). I had mentioned is my post-trade writeup that I thought the trade would benefit Gerald - but I did not expect it to be this dramatic. Had the trade occurred prior to the start of the season, Gerald would have a solid case for an All-Star selection.

And so would Emeka: With Boris around, Okafor has gone off to the tune of 17.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 1.9 blocks per game (WP48 of .326). Pre-Boris: 12.6, 10.8 and 1.7, WP48 of .253. Those post trade numbers certainly look All-Star worthy in the East (well, behind Dwight Howard of course).

Final numbers: Having already mentioned the efficiencies of Charlotte pre and post trade, I just want to note 2 other numbers: Assist rate and turnover rate. Before the trade, Charlotte had an assist on 17.9% of opportunities (opportunities, not field goals - this accounts for turnovers, offensive rebounds, etc) and turnovers on 14.8% of chances. Since the trade, the assist rate is up to 22.1%...and the turnover rate is up to 14.9%, even with Boris turning the ball over what seems like every other possession sometimes. Considering that his teammates are still getting used to him and his pass-happy ways, I would think that first number could go up even slightly more, while the second number might drop as guys start to expect his passes. An offense that creates more easy looks for teammates and moves the ball better? 2009 might be looking up for Charlotte after all.

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Bobcats vs. Knicks Recap

12/31/2008

Boxscore
Score: 93-89 New York
Game Efficiencies:
Offensive: 90.8
Defensive: 94.9
Bobcats Record: 11-21
Meritorious Player: D.J. Augustin. 15 points on 12 attempts, 4 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals. The Bobcats were at 104.4 offensively and 87.1 defensively with D.J. on the court, with a +/- of 10.

Matt - not exactly a good use of your start. Only 4 points from your 6 attempts and a turnover, yet no assists - it was not exactly the stuff of an offensive ace. Not that you were the only one who had offensive troubles...

Really guys, this is New York you were playing, not Boston or Cleveland. The Knicks have a better defensive efficiency than 6 teams in the league - and the Bobcats let the Knicks hold them to their 6th worst offensive performance of the year. Unsurprisingly, turnovers were a large factor, as Charlotte coughed the ball up 19 times, with Boris Diaw leading the way with 6 and Emeka running second with 4.

Highlighting the other three solid performances of the evening:
Emeka Okafor was a close runner up for meritorious player, with 13 points on 11 attempts, 15 rebounds, and a block - but the aforementioned 4 turnovers hurt him a bit.
Gerald Wallace had 21 on 15 attempts (with a bit high mark of three 3-pointers attempted), 6 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 steals, and a block.
Raymond Felton shot poorly, with just 12 points on 17 attempts, but made up for it with 8 rebounds(!), 8 assists, 2 steals, 2 blocks, and just 1 turnover. Had Raymond shot 40% from the floor, it would have been a very good game, but without becomes just a solid effort. (Speaking of Raymond's shooting - I am going to figure out who the streakiest shooter in the NBA is - and I will post about it.)

A winnable game slipped away - not the first of this past week. I will go back and at least look at common threads from the un-recapped games (my acknowledgment of my slacking). Yes, I had a good Christmas, thanks for asking. No, New Years will not cause the same slow down of the site.

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Bobcats vs Grizzlies Recap

12/21/2008

Score: 112-83 Bobcats
Efficiencies:
Offensive: 125.8
Defensive: 95.4
Bobcats Record: 9-18 (2 wins in a row)
Meritorious Player: Gerald Wallace. Charlotte was +30 with Crash on the court, with a net efficiency of +54.5 over 27 minutes, 49 seconds. Gerald had 22 points on 11 attempts, 9 rebounds, 4 steals, and 2 assists - again, in just under 28 minutes. Quite a night.

Now that was fun and it was good to see the Bobcats on the right side of a blowout for once. Shooting 65.8% as a team does have a tendency towards making victory likely (though when part of that shooting percentage is Boris Diaw making 4 of 4 from three, it is not something we need to get too used to). It was such an efficient scoring night, that Gerald did not even put up the most points of someone who scored 2 points per attempt - Diaw topped him, with 26 on his 13 attempts. Somewhat amazingly, this was not the first game of the season where the Bobcats had 2 players score 20+ points while with a points per shot mark of 2 or better: D.J. and Raymond combined to do the same thing back on November 24th against Philly (now you know, and knowing is half the battle).

Having already mentioned Boris' strong scoring effort, I want to make a couple of more notes about the new guys. First, Diaw had a strong effort on the boards, with 10 total, 4 being offensive. Boris also continued to play the role of facilitator on offense, with 3 more assists. Enough about Diaw - I have certainly talked far more about him since the trade than Raja Bell and I want to balance that inequity some tonight. While Bell continued to struggle from the field, shooting 3 of 9 for 6 points (it is a slump and will end - he is a solid shooter who will have a limited offensive role), he did contribute 3 assists and 2 rebounds, without turning the ball over. More importantly, the Bobcats were great with him on the floor - not as good as their overall marks for the game, but it is important to remember that as a starter, he is facing tougher competition.

Speaking of the starters, it is too bad they could not just play the whole 48 minutes themselves. It would have been a franchise record margin of victory for sure. In just over 17 minutes on the court together, the starters (Raymond, Bell, Crash, Diaw, and Okafor) were +20. Their efficiencies were just as ridiculous, offensively 141.1 and defensively 82.4. Nice work fellas. Possibly an even more amazing number: The Bobcat starters out-rebounded Memphis 20-5, giving up 0 offensive rebounds to the Grizzlies.

Last note: D.J. Augustin had a strange game for him, with just 3 attempts (making 1) for only 2 points. But he did have 10 assists in only 24 minutes. Yet another but - Augustin coughed the ball up 5 times. I am not even sure who to compare that kind of performance to - who shoots so rarely, and either creates for his team or the opponent on nearly every possession used? Weird line for D.J. But a great win for the Bobcats.

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Bobcats vs Bulls Recap

12/16/2008

Boxscore
Score: 110-101 (ot) Bobcats (Yes!)
Bobcats Record: 8-18
Game Efficiencies:
Offensive: 112.2
Defensive: 103.1
Meritorious Player: D.J. Augustin. 29 points on 16 attempts (only 6 makes, but 13 of 13 from the line). 7 assists and 1 steal to make up for the single turnover. The Cats were +19 with him on the court (in 45 minutes), with a net efficiency of +21.1. Big moment: Making 3 of 3 at the line with 19 seconds left to tie the game and ultimately send it to over time. Clutch.

Bobcats win! Bobcats win! O.k., I know it is not really that big of a deal - but it kind of is. A 7 game losing streak is rather significant (losing ~1/12 of your season, in a row), so pulling this one out was big. It is a good start to a stretch of 9 winnable games (opponents are either barely over .500 or below).
Gerald Wallace missed the game, having gone home for the funeral of his father - thoughts and prayers are with Gerald and his family. In his absence, the Bobcats started the game big, with Juwan, Emeka, Boris, Raja, and Raymond. Raja ended that quickly, getting ejected early on. And Juwan played just 26 minutes, leaving the bulk of Gerald's minutes to Matt Carroll, who responded with a solid night of 7 points, 4 rebounds, and 3 assists. Charlotte played all of overtime with D.J., Raymond, Matt, Diaw, and Emeka - and it worked in a big way, as the Cats won the extra period by 9. In fact, had it not been for overtime, the Bobcats would have been looking at far poorer offensive numbers for the game. In overtime, they scored 16 points on 11 possessions, an efficiency of 145.5. During regulation, they were only at 95.9 (94 points on 98 possessions). Was the Bobcats lineup during overtime so much more offensively effective than the ones used during the rest of the game? No, it was largely a product of having a lead and Chicago needing to foul. Whatever the reason, we will take it.

Another number that took advantage of overtime? Boris Diaw's rebound rate. In regulation, he managed only 3 rebounds. In ot, he grabbed 4. I am not quite complaining, as I am glad he did boarded strongly in the extra time...but, it would be nice to see congruity in effort/results throughout.

Other numbers of note:
13 attempts for Boris, 12 for Emeka. I am good with that. Not sure I like having Raymond and D.J. lead the way at 17 and 16, but it worked tonight.
46-43. That is the number Charlotte was out-rebounded by. A big improvement over the last night's effort, considering that Chicago and Atlanta have pretty similar rebounding profiles.
11 turnovers total for Charlotte...but only 4 after the first quarter. Charlotte struggled early holding onto the ball early; Diaw in particular, as he had 3 turnovers in the first quarter. Fortunately, it was a wake-up call for the Cats and they improved dramatically over the rest of the game.
43 fta for Charlotte. Again, the number was padded at the end of ot, when Chicago was trying to get back in it. With that said, still a very impressive number, and demonstrative of an aggressive offensive night by the Bobcats.

In the immortal words of Lou Brown: "If we win today, that's two in a row. If we win tomorrow, that's called a winning streak. It has happened before." Change today into Friday, and tomorrow into Saturday, and you have the opportunity in front of the Bobcats. I should have waited until I did a preview for the Grizzlies game, I know - but the win has me in such good spirits I had to break out one of my favorites.

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Bobcats vs Hawks Recap

12/16/2008

Detailed boxscore

Score: 83-79 Atlanta

Bobcats Efficiencies:
Offensive: 94.0
Defensive: 100.0
Bobcats Record: 7-18
Meritorious Player: Emeka Okafor. 10 points, 11 rebounds, and the only Bobcat with a positive +/- for the night, at +2.

Solid game for the Bobcats through 3 quarters, but the 4th was a train wreck. 3 points through 9 minutes of the 4th, leading to ATL taking up to a 9 point lead. The Bobcats could not get anything to fall, jumpers, layups, whatever. Ugly to watch. The Hawks had something to do with the Cats struggles, as they blocked 6 shots in just the 4th quarter. But Charlotte was not without culpability - the team seemed to revert to bad habits, and were driving all the way to the rim, rather than finding the open man after penetration. Not saying all of the blocks were like that, but it was a part of it. Guys were trying to be the hero, and were taking tough shots (or getting their shot swatted).

Interesting numbers from the game:
Boris Diaw - 23 fga (11 makes)
Raymond Felton - 15 fga (5 makes)
D.J. Augustin - 13 fga (4 makes)
Gerald Wallace - 8 fga (4 makes)
Emeka Okafor - 7 fga (3 makes)

Boris' 23 attempts were easily a season high for him, as the number was 15 previously. I am not complaining about the number of attempts, because for the most part, they were good looks (aside from the air-balled 3 - well, he was wide open, but not sure we wanting him shooting that, despite him making one previously in the game). Diaw was aggressive in posting up and driving to the rim, but cost himself by making only 2-5 free throws. 25 points on 23 attempts is not a good number - even if he made 2 more free throws, 27 on 23 is only tolerable. The discrepancy in attempts between he and Emeka needs to decrease - Diaw can create for others far more effectively than Emeka, but Emeka is a more efficient scorer and needs to get more shots. I imagine Boris is feeling a bit like a kid in a candy store with the freedom he was afforded last night to run the offense for stretches - Larry Brown will have to rein that in a bit, while still taking advantage of his varied skills.

More than the shooting - the Bobcats lost the game on the glass. After pounding Detroit in rebounding, ATL returned the favor, out-rebounding Charlotte 47-33, with 11 offensive rebounds to 4. My incredulity at the Hawks rebounding weakness in the preview yesterday was realized in the game last night - they should be a great rebounding team, and last night they were. For Charlotte, only Gerald and Emeka showed up on the boards, 10 for Gerald and the 11 for Mek. Bell and Diaw - 3 a piece, though Bell managed his in 12 fewer minutes. Boris, we kind of need more than 3 rebounds from our starting 4 in 40 minutes of action. We would expect so a low total from Alexis, not you.

Had Charlotte not missed 11 straight shots spread over the end of the 3rd and the 4th, the losing streak would probably be over. As it is, Diaw showed some more of his skill-set, displaying a solid post game, highlighted by a jump-hook shot that he hit several of last night. The Bobcats were strong with the ball, with only 6 turnovers. They showed enough to know that this streak will not last much longer, perhaps ending tonight against Chicago.

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