Game #52: Bobcats vs. Mavericks Preview « Queen City Hoops

Game #52: Bobcats vs. Mavericks Preview

Who: Charlotte Bobcats vs Dallas Mavericks

What: NBA Basketball – Bobcats Home Game

When: 7:00 PM ET

Where: Live at Time Warner Cable Arena, Charlotte, NC

The Matchup:

Record Offensive
Efficiency
Defensive
Efficiency
Pace
Charlotte 22-29 98.4 (27) 101.0 (6) 95.3 (21)
Dallas 31-21 108.4 (4) 105.5 (23) 96.4 (14)

 

Injuries:
Charlotte: Brendan Haywood (OUT), Jeffery Taylor (OUT)
Dallas: Monta Ellis (DTD)

Starting Lineups

Bobcats Mavericks
PG Kemba Walker Jose Calderon
SG Gerald Henderson Monta Ellis
SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist Shawn Marion
PF Josh McRoberts Dirk Nowitzki
C Al Jefferson Samuel Dalembert
6th Man Ramon Sessions Vince Carter

Tonight Charlotte will have their hands full with a very potent offense in the Dallas Mavericks. The Mavs are top-5 in offensive efficiency and they get it done from inside and out. When you roster Dirk, it’s obvious that your team will be able to score from all over the floor and Dallas is 4th in the league in FG% at 47.4%. They also get it done from behind-the-arc rather efficiently, shooting 37.8% from downtown (5th in NBA).

The flip side of the Mavericks offensive power is their below average defense – let’s have a look at how Charlotte could expose Dallas on the offensive end tonight. Dallas allows their opponents to shooting 46.2% from the floor – that’s good for 6th worst defensively in the league. Mavs opponents also get to the foul line 25.2 times/game (6th worst) and this is exactly where the Bobcats can grind on the visitors tonight. Considering the fact that Charlotte is 7th in the league in FTA/game at 24.7, the mindset offensively must be predicated on attacking the rim tonight. When the Bobcats take more FTA than their opponents they’re always in games and rarely do they lose.

An important 48 hours.: Tonight is a huge trampoline game for the Bobcats as they prepare to travel to Brooklyn tomorrow night – a game that will carry big time playoff implications leading into the all-star break. There is significant snowfall expected for the Charlotte region today + tonight, so the Bobcats may be playing in front of a small crowd.

Injury note: Monta Ellis did play Sunday in Dallas’ win in Boston and practiced yesterday, but did admit that his right hamstring was “a little tight”, so this makes his status for tonight interesting and something to keep an eye on.

6 comments to Game #52: Bobcats vs. Mavericks Preview

  • NCTony

    Have to Admit to the Biyombo supporters – he played his best game of year.
    May have upped his trade value— but hopefully, he continues to play the way he played tonight.

    Huge assert tonight!!

    Oh by the way Big Al is playing defense too these days .. Great production from the 5 position with the two guys combined!!!

  • Dave Walshy

    Al is fine on defense when he gives the effort and stays focused. He may never be able to step out and be good at hedging pick and rolls or have any kind of chance at stopping drives due to his slow feet but as long as he tries he can play his part just fine. He is actually kind of good at guarding other guys that just want to bang with him. Maybe being on a defensive oriented team will help him actually become a complete player instead of just a brilliant post scorer. I don’t think we should be trying to trade Biyombo unless we are making a major deal. I wish Clifford would at least attempt some lineups with Biz and Al together so Biz could get some more minutes. That would create kind of a log jam situation at PF if we were trying to give Biz minutes there too but it could be worth it. I have nothing against McBob but I kind of just want him gone so we can find more minutes for the young guys since I doubt there is any chance Clifford would move him to a backup role (he must have a thing for that hair lol). Oh yeah, PLAY MKG MORE. I don’t care if occasionally Tolliver hits some 3′s He is COMPLETELY useless outside of that. He is well below average in virtually every other aspect and MKG is the future of this team.

  • Dave Walshy

    I really, really, reaaallly hope we don’t trade for Brandon Bass.

  • charlottean

    can’t wait to see how these guys grade this one. biz was probably good for a C+ or B- in their world. mcroberts probably an A+++++.

    when on earth have you seen a stat line of 3 for 4 from 3 for 9 points, 13 assists, 2 rebounds and it wasn’t a point guard. as great of a game he played and as well as the team plays when he plays like that……we all know he can’t sustain that and it just furthers his identity crisis.

    al plays defense in spots, just enough to convince you he’s trying. then he gives up uncontested layups that he has a clear path to contend and just chooses not to. he plays as though foul trouble is cancer (literal, not metaphoric cancer). if he just contested a few shots, trusted our bench to buy some more time for him……they would be a 45-50 win team THIS SEASON. the guy is and always has been incredible on offense (although i don’t think he’s had a stretch this dominant in his career) and just chooses not to play defense. he gets some valuable steals but no rim protection. it would be valuable for the team to say “we’re going with biyombo if you don’t start contesting layups” or something to that effect.

    this was another legit win (they’ve had a few lately) and it’s just depressing to see that, look at the standings and see we’re still 6 below .500, still on pace for 36 wins, only 1/2 game ahead of detroit, 2 or 2.5 ahead of new york with still a gauntlet of games remaining this month after ASW. they’ve surprised lately by staying a float so i tend to believe they are playoff bound with an easy schedule down the stretch……but they could drop the back to back to detroit and muck everything up off that alone. and they aren’t really progressing toward a 6 seed, so we’re still in no-man’s land. best thing that could happen would be MKG awakening in the playoffs going toe to toe with either george or lebron and coming back next season a changed man. that’s my ideal scenario at this point because i don’t think there’s any hope for a good trade or draft picks at this point unless it’s detroit.

    keep in mind….marcus smart is almost certain to be available 10-20 now and is top 5 talent. that was a good thing for us. we can afford 1 bad boy with our current group i think. tight leash though….that dude is off his rocker. can ball though. we don’t need another non passing non 3pt shooting guard, but his trade value will be nuts if we give him the eric bledsoe treatment for a year or two. way better than what we will likely pick.

  • Dave Walshy

    Completely agree about your best case scenario for this season. For whatever insane reason they just have no interest in keeping this years pick. Top ten pick in one of the best drafts in years… pshhh don’t need it… we getting 36-38 wins in the tanking conference… I feel like there would be a good chance for the MKG scenario to play out like that but only if Clifford plays him more than 23 minutes a game. I swear if we make the playoffs and are forced to watch Tolliver guarding Lebron/George for half the game while MKG sits on the bench I’m going to lose it. Completely agree on McBob too. He occasionally has “nice” games like this but for the most part his role has forced him into a kind of “do nothing” player. It would be tremendous if we could get Marcus Smart with the Detroit pick. He isn’t a great shooter and he has proven he isn’t a distributor or leader like people were saying but he seems perfectly suited to play SG for a defensive team like this. I think he will end up being a better shooter than Hendo with some time and he is just so tough, strong, and athletic. He reminds me of a mini Lance Stephenson. He even has the same attitude issues but I think with a stable locker room and coach like we have now he would be fine. He’ll never need to be the primary ball handler with the first unit but he can do everything we would need him to and still get plenty of opportunities to attack and score, especially if he developed a decent outside shot. We could unleash him on second units when Kemba is resting the same way Indiana does with Lance. And like you said, we could always trade him if his play style ends up not fitting well enough. You should watch the Clifford interview on Charlottes ESPN page. Your head literally might explode when you hear them talking about how great Jordan and Higgins are.

  • charlottean

    Lance stephenson has always been a better shooter, but i get what you’re saying. I think he’s more tyreke evans. the problem with the whole scenario is that it’s becoming possible that we lose both picks. They’re slotted 10th right now, a little lottery magic and that’s gone AND they would be landing a wiggins, parker, exum type that would have them go flying past us next year. they could easily flip flop with new york and cleveland down the stretch if they lose the 2 games to us and decide to tank the rest of the way to keep the pick. even boston is only 4 games behind (ahead?) of them. Us keeping our pick is becoming downright improbable. It would take either new york, cleveland, or detroit bouncing us from the playoffs AND finishing worse than one of the other two or new orleans. and minnesota and denver are going to start tanking any day now to make it worse. neither one of them are in contention anymore. only new york, cleveland, detroit, and memphis have any real incentive to try and grab playoff spots at this point.

    I am becoming more and more convinced that clifford is just hustling everybody. He knows that what he’s doing is counterproductive, but he’s doing everything he can just to keep his job. You have to figure once he gets through 3 years, he might have a permanent gig. Especially if he manages 2 playoff births in 3 years which to the idiot fanbase would equate to success even if they are 8 seeds. He has to know better. I mean i don’t think he’s very smart, but i think he’s at least THAT smart. The worst thing he’s doing for himself is padding his resume for his next job. That’s the whole reason why it was idiotic to fire dunlap. he wasn’t coaching for the next gig, he was doing his job. clifford is doing what’s best for him and it makes complete sense given management’s track record. I would do the same if I were him (if i weren’t such a hometown loyalist). I would have zero faith in management actually keeping the guys I develop, so why develop guys? why risk getting fired a year after getting your first coaching gig before people even learn your name?

    It’s about a 50/50 toss up on the playoff spot at this point, but because we have such a soft schedule down the stretch i tend to put my money on the spot being ours to lose. so in trying to get on board with that scenario…..the MKG thing is the only thing to pull for. Or biyombo/zeller having a few nights like they did last night. MKG will play a ton in either series. clifford can’t be dumb enough to play tolliver after what melo did to him. tolliver should play every minute battier or granger play and nothing more. MKG SHOULD get better officiating given that he will be starting in a playoff game with better refs (sort of). But he’ll still get in foul trouble with the superstar calls. If I were clifford I would throw MKG and all 6 fouls at lebron/george every minute they are on the floor in the first half and deal with the consequences later. you let them get going against tolliver in the first half, it won’t matter who is guarding them the second half and they will go lights out. melo game was evidence of that as he was draining all kinds of contested fade aways on MKG in the 3rd quarter.

    i just feel like if any of our guys have defining moments in a series against miami or indiana…. just one game…. it won’t be forgotten and will either lead to major success next year, or major offseason trade value. either way it’s a positive although i’m sure in scenario two, we will be getting fleeced in a trade.

    and i don’t want to hear how offensively limited MKG and biz are. biz just had 10 points in less than 10 minutes and mkg had a 10 point quarter a few games ago. you don’t score that much in that limited amount of time being offensively limited. they are teammate limited and coaches confidence limited. experience and age limited. biz is shooting 64% from the field. tell me it’s mostly dunks and run back the film and stats on his post ups. most of his misses are on blocked dunks or missed tip backs. the guy is flat out making shots and doing what he’s supposed to. he could be a 10-13-4 guy tomorrow if we starting playing him.

    if anyone wants to discredit analytics, biz has an offensive rating of 117. durant is leading the league at 124. jefferson has a 104. As much as I will argue that biyombo gives you a better net result LONG TERM than jefferson, there is NO WAY IN HELL i would argue that biz gives you better offensive production RIGHT NOW per possession than Al. all it says is that biz is converting the shots he takes and sessions gets to the line a lot. i swear these guys coming up with these stats aren’t even legit statisticians. the equations for these “metrics” in basketball are absolutely laughable. baseball’s equations are elementary because the game is isolated incidents. there are hardly any variables. did you put the ball in play, did the ball get fielded, how often is it a home run, how often do you get walks + hits, how often do you strike out vs. walk. not even field goal % is as simple as on base %.

    I want to see defensive points analyzed. biz blocks a vince carter dunk that has a 99% probability rate of 2 points. that dude just saved 1.98 points. Jefferson steals the ball with 8 seconds on the shot clock where dallas averages .94 PPP with the current lineup, he saved .94 points. and i want to see that tracked and averaged to measure actual defensive impact. not deflections. eff that. that shows activity, not results. touches? are you effing kidding me? they track touches but they don’t accurately track PPP and net possessions gained. i haven’t seen anyone tracking screens set or grading screens yet even the NFL does that with blocks. what they are tracking is mostly useless. most of the stats generated are just confirming that certain guys are good. none of it is accomplishing what stats did for baseball which was give better value to role players doing their job with less flashy simple statistics. guys that added value. or projecting how a backup player would do in a starting position. all basketball metrics are doing is saying……oh lebron and kevin durant are awesome. and everybody that plays less than 20 mpg is horrible except the guy that hit a half court shot during the only 3 minutes he played.

    you can’t give biz a 117 offensive rating when most of his points come from put backs and dump offs. that’s not at all comparable to what durant does. OR what al does. just like biz’ defensive rating shouldn’t be anywhere near jefferson’s yet they are 1 point apart. jefferson is somehow both the worst defender on the team and has the best defensive rating.

    sorry i had to rant on that off topic.

    here’s to hoping we get marcus smart around 10th with the detroit pick. not because i want marcus smart (i don’t – and not because of the incident) but because that would be excellent value. dude is top 5 talent. you could let kemba get hurt for 20 games and swap smart for a STUD starter or two the way LAC got redick and dudley for bledsoe. or even a deron williams/james harden type deal.