Bobcats acquire Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour from Milwaukee « Queen City Hoops

Bobcats acquire Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour from Milwaukee

We all knew that the Charlotte front office had been burning up the phones this week to land offensive help before the trade deadline. Today, they manufactured a trade that will bring guards Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour to the Bobcats in exchange for Ramon Sessions and Jeff Adrien.

Losing Sessions to mainly bolster three-point shooting is what will be debated the most about this trade, but it ends up making sense for Charlotte due to the fact that this ends up being a 2-for-1 deal, essentially. Losing Ramon won’t make any Bobcats fan do backflips, but Charlotte will get back Luke Ridnour, who will immediately become the team’s backup point-guard + Gary Neal will now give this roster a dead-eye shooting guard who can come off the bench and score points in volume. Jeff Adrien, who I’m very sad to see go, was simply added into this trade to make the salaries balance out – in essence, defining the 2-for-1 deal for Charlotte.

Gary Neal is a 39.3% three-point shooter over his four-year NBA career. Although Neal has not been good in Milwaukee this season, he also hasn’t been happy being there and the Bucks deciding to sign him last summer simply didn’t pay off. He’s averaged 10 PPG, 1.7 APG & 1.4 RPG this season – in summary, he’s on the floor to do one thing and one thing only – score the ball. Defensively, Neal will frustrate you at times. He likes to gamble for steals and looks to leak out – this leads to the 29-year old blowing defensive assignments from time-to-time. Playing in Charlotte under Clifford will be an interesting setting for Neal, but considering the fact that he wanted out of Milwaukee and has been granted that wish, you would like to think the effort will be there. Neal will have one more year left on his contract after this one worth $3.2 million.

Luke Ridnour shouldn’t be asked to do a ton for the Bobcats. If Kemba is healthy for the remainder of the year, he’s going to log anywhere from 33-40 minutes on a nightly basis, so Ridnour will simply have to come in to be a ‘game manager’. What Ridnour doesn’t bring to the table that Sessions did is the ability to get to the free-throw line at a very high rate. What he does bring to the table, opposed to Sessions, is the ability to space the floor and knock down three’s. Ridnour is a 35.1% shooter from behind-the-arc for his career. Ridnour also has a 4/1 assist-to-turnover ratio for his career in the league, and again, he’s basically going to be asked to come in and manage games while Kemba rests. Ridnour has an expiring contract, so he’s likely only a half season rental for Charlotte in their playoff push.

This trade will have it’s critics, but at the core of the deal is the idea that the Bobcats gain three-point shooting + floor spacing, while sacrificing free-throw shooting and a guy that attacks the rim as hard as any point-guard in this league (Sessions).

Personally, I’m not sure how much this trade really moves the needle. It all rests in the hands of just how productive Gary Neal can be for this team since Charlotte is now committed to his $3.2 million next season, while Sessions was expiring and would have been coming off the books. Is it a good trade for the Bobcats? Meh, maybe. Is it a bad trade for them? No, not necessarily. Here’s hoping that Neal can rediscover the three-point shooting touch (42%) that he had in San Antonio his first two seasons (’10-’12) in the NBA.

46 comments to Bobcats acquire Gary Neal and Luke Ridnour from Milwaukee

  • Rashad

    At the end of the day, Neither Luke Ridnour nor Ben Gordon will be on this team next year. Sessions was going to be off the books after this season anyway. Gary Neal and his $3.2 million isn’t bad at all. There will still be a lot of cap space this off season to sign someone productive for next season. All in all, if make it to the playoffs and win one game at least then I’d be happy.

  • Jeremy

    All that matters is they didn’t give up their first round draft picks in a very deep draft next year just to be the 5th or 6th or 7th best playoff team this year…

  • connor

    I like this trade. We added 3 point shooting and didn’t give up draft picks. I think this does make us a more balanced/complete team. Well done Rich Cho!

  • RyanC

    I like the idea of Neal coming off the bench, and I am actually a huge fan of the Ridnour get. Ridnour is a guy that always floats around in the fantasy basketball waiver wire for a few reasons: he’s consistent when he gets minutes, 3 ball ability, and assists/t:o. With roomers flying about letting go of Zeller, MKG, or draft picks I think the Cats made a conservative and slightly beneficial move. When Jeffery Taylor, who I thought was really going to be a breakout player this year went down, so did a lot of Charlotte’s spacing abilities. Taylor still hadn’t quite found his shot, but watching him in the summer league you could tell he was inching towards becoming a more dependable player. You can’t underestimate the value of 3-point shooters, especially if they are hot, and Neal can be that guy. Here is to hoping a change of scenery and some better weather will do him well, and thus, the Bobcats well.

  • Dave Walshy

    Downgrade in talent for an upgrade in fit. I don’t see this trade helping much at all but we didn’t give up anything that mattered so I don’t really care. I fully expected any trade they made to be awful so I guess this is kind of good in a way. I hope they still can manage to get something out of Ben Gordon’s contract.

  • charlottean

    this was the ultimate : do a deal just to say we did a deal.

    this doesn’t make the team better, and it doesn’t help our cap situation next year. only way it’s a good deal is if neal/ridnhour replace sessions production off the bench, and work better with the second unit. I find that unlikely given they will split the minutes. if it was sessions for neal, there would be more of a chance that neal replaced sessions production, pargo played a little bit more but not much, and it added to our 3 point shooting.

    i’m just thrilled it wasn’t a HORRIBLE deal. this is cho’s entire value as a GM. since he’s been here, we haven’t made any HORRIBLE deals. plenty of ehhh to not good to decent to solid deals, no horrible deals. before cho, we made horrible deals our MO.

    only costs us 3.25mm on next year and that’s replacing sessions at a cheaper rate so that’s actually schrewd management given that the free agent market is going to be TOUGH and we COULD possibly bring sessions back at the minimum or mini mle if we made a big signing that took us to the cap. but this deal isn’t going to stop us from making a big offer to somebody who doesn’t deserve quite as much.

  • charlottean

    that turner and allen to indiana deal was sneaky good for indiana – JUST FOR THIS title chase.

    they actually save money this year, which is money they could use to pay taxes to get stephenson what he will probably command this summer. and upgraded granger – if only health wise – and added a rugged young big who looked like an absolute stud 2nd round pick as a rookie under doug collins and could definitely look that way under frank vogel if they keep him around. allen has game.

    i don’t get what philly did there at all. a 2nd rounder (another) and granger for ~90 days. weird. hinkie seems like he simultaneously knows exactly what he’s doing and has no idea what he’s doing. ton of picks accumulated…..plenty of cap room…..keeps thad young. has MCW, tony wroten, nerlens noel, earl clark, for some reason they even have byron mullens in what is ALMOST DEFINITELY his last shot at what could have been an all-star level nba career if he had just gone all in last year when he was given the chance.

    seriously….that indiana trade was sneaky great for them.

  • charlottean

    nevermid, sixers waived earl clark. how did that dude go from being the most impressive laker on the howard/nash/bryant/gasol/artest team to being the guy that gets cut from the cavs and sixers this year. in less than a year.

  • Spencer/SDS

    I have no idea…I kinda get the deal in Cleveland…had to split time with Bennett and then Deng just took everything, why the sixers didn’t keep him is beyond bizarre thou imo. He brings defense + rebounding at the 3 with what was a good offensive skill set with the Lakers(had a poor 1st half with Cleveland) that is a 3/4 hybrid…the sixers don’t have any 3…they are the definition of tanking…but damn they have how many picks this year now??? they have like half of the 2nd round picks…

  • charlottean

    i just don’t get why we didn’t make a move with gordon. i mean…..they didn’t need to make a deal just to make a deal but they could have gotten rondo with picks and by trading gordon for wallace as an added incentive. i mean kemba’s not a bad player by any stretch, but he’s no rondo either. not unless he just had a eureka moment the other night. and i doubt that. i just think that was detroit making the game a playground.

    i just hate that we didn’t capitalize on this deadline. picks in hand, multiple trade assets…..they just blew it to be honest. not with this one trade, but with the lack of materializing any of these assets. instead of the maggette for gordon deal netting us a pick PLUS a big trade, we just get the pick. instead of sessions signing equating to a big move, it lands gary neal. and we did nothing with haywood or mcroberts bargain deals.

  • Spencer/SDS

    Rondo + Henderson + MKG=worse shooting back court in history…lol

    Gordon for Wallace makes sense, but the Celtics are building through the draft, they don’t want to give up picks and next year is looking bad free agency wise…yes there is the big 3 and Melo…but only LeBron can turn the celtics into a contender immediately…and he isn’t going there by himself…(LeBron negates Rondo as a PG) Melo isn’t going to like the Idea of a Rondo either…Bosh could be a good fit but he and Rondo aren’t winning anything…they had no reason to really trade Wallace’s contract away this year (I believe it has 2 more years after this year) they may just wait him out…his contract won’t hurt them this year in free agency and I don’t think 2015 is bringing in much either…

    Agree with the lack of using our chips when we had them to get something big….This is the worse part about the regime right now…this felt like a Cho move…Al/Clifford felt like a Jordan/Higgins move…no consistency in how this franchise is moving

  • Horncatsalive

    @Charlottean, I’m glad you aren’t the GM! A trade opportunity is just that. The media, including this site, buzzzzzzzed with rumors but they can’t help that. They made the team better, even if by a little bit. You don’t make a team better by constantly blowing up your roster. This isn’t “on-paper” basketball. These are human beings that have to get along and know their roles and play well together, putting the right people in the right places, etc. Keep that in mind is all I ask. We have a good core. Imagine the backlash if we DIDN’T make a trade? Sit back and enjoy the competitive games and the upcoming draft picks (McDermott + Hairston!!).

  • NCTony

    Horn cats if these guys if they had there way we’d sit both Big Al for Biz ans Play Cody 36 mins over McBob.. The one guy was telling me how stupid we were for letting Ajinca go… They live in a fantasy world …

    Can’t wait to see the next brilliant comment… Think Biz got the message with his benching coaches decision DNP. Ever since his play is dramatically improved. That’s what I was talking about with motivation… You guys went the sulking big bady route…

  • charlottean

    so you’re glad rod higgins is running things?

    i don’t even know what the eff you’re talking about because i’m the guy that preaches continuity and they’re the guys that constantly blow up the roster and give up on young talent.

    dealing for a guy like rondo is a home run move. it’s a harden type move. you immediately establish credibility that kemba just can’t bring. and you wouldn’t have to give up kemba either, we could have gotten rondo with a package around sessions and a slew of picks that we’ve accumulated. could have had rondo playing the 1 and kemba playing the 1-2 off the bench and finish games with kemba at the 2 instead of gerald. this isn’t paper basketball, this is the real thing. i’m glad you think they did a good job by landing GARY NEAL for ramon sessions. i can’t stand sessions and his stupid unnecessary turnovers so i like having ridnour instead (i think) but the guy absolutely created points making him a solid backup pg. he would start for a lot of teams.

    i think we could have done better based on who was available, but like i said it wasn’t a bad deal either.

    as for the shooting……kemba’s a 32% career shooter. rondo is in no way a shooter, but his ability to create makes everybody else a higher % shooter the same way nash did. and his defense is insane. we would immediately have the capability of rolling out one of the best defensive lineups ever if you put he, henderson, biyombo, mkg and ANYBODY on the floor at the 4 spot. and rondo is making 35% of his 3′s this year…..outlier for sure, but he did have that one playoff series 2 years ago where he took over and was draining 3′s from all over. 9 for 24 on the run or something.

    tony i never have any idea what you’re even talking about. biz was playing better in preseason and in the first few games of the year. his play suffered when he wasn’t playing. once he settled back into a regular role, the guy has been playing great ball. you’re the guy that said pack it in and give up on the 21 year old top 5 rebounder top 5 shot blocker. what a genius you are.

    i clearly stated on many occassion, that while ajinca is no stud…..he was a CHEAP young big that we traded for OLD najera’s bad contract during rebuilding years. ajinca is starting right now after we did everything possible to make the dude’s career go away. all i’ve ever said was that it was a dumb trade and that he would be better off if we had developed him properly instead of passing him off when he could have been playing instead of byron mullens. there’s no logical argument to the opposite, but i’m glad you keep bringing it up. brilliant guy. that orange hat looks crazy dumb, too.

    you guys are all in on a team that while riding a 3 game winning steak (huge) is 5 games under .500. and might be looking at the best draft in 10 years and have no picks in the top 25. and i’m the “idiot” that thinks that developing the 21 year old big guys is the smarter move than playing the guys who have already peaked at mediocrity.

    how many championships is al jefferson’s defense gonna win? better yet, how many playoff games? rich cho has made the team at least reasonable, but our front office is still one of the worst in the league. if not the worst, now.

    you clowns think MKG is a bust. the guy is not even debatable-y the highest ceiling talent on our roster. and the 5th youngest in the NBA.

    explain to me how it’s a good thing that we’re buying out ben gordon instead of trading him for evan turner. we don’t even have to play turner if we don’t want to. it’s just the point……which is more appropriate? we could have SAVED money, had a better talent at the end of the bench, and a potential sign & trade asset for the summer. instead we eat gordon’s contract? how is any of that logical. went through the same mess with diaw and others. they continue to not get ANY value for ANYBODY. danny ainge got a 1st round pick for jordan crawford and marshon brooks. think about that statement. and we can’t even manage to capitalize on major expiring deals that offer cap savings.

    you guys told me how wrong i was about augustin for years, yet he just led chicago to ANOTHER win with 22 points on 13 possessions. 8 assists. 5 boards. we got NO COMPENSATION for that guy. instead of developing him, we had the dude all kinds of bad mojo-wise and end up spending another top 10 pick on a pg of the same caliber talent. you don’t get better by drafting guys HIGH and not developing them, not investing in them, letting them go and getting NO compensation for them.

    you don’t get anywhere by wasting assets. at the very least get a 2nd rounder. at the very least get draft rights on a guy that might never play in the NBA but just in case he does…….GET SOMETHING.

  • Spencer/SDS

    Kemba 4 3 pt APG last yr 32%, 4.5 3pt APG this year 34%, might not be the most accurate but he is accurate enough and takes enough to force teams to stay on top of him at the 3 line…Rondo for his entire career basically has been back up 10 feet, he won’t make it ^_^
    Last yr however Rodno was 10th in fg% between 16-23 feet last year on 3 attempts per game (making 50% of his long 2′s) well above his career average, he (at least last yr) has increased his range significantly…still, Rondo+Hendo+MKG brings no credibility to a good 3 pt shooter at all lol ^_^, with that deal you trade Henderson immediately afterward if it was made (Picks plus sessions for rondo) but that’s the past.

    this teams track record in developing players is beyond piss poor, as is NCTony’s memory it appears at times…either that or he just loves to twist what you say into something completely else…or maybe that is just what his brain does automatically…would explain a lot, but I digress…

    IDK why we are trying to buy out Gordon…makes little sense at this point…unless we are going to try and get a “big baby” davis, Jamison or Metta World peace as their contracts are also being bought out…even then none of them really bring anything that this team doesn’t already have and all of them won’t win any more games, and will just waste development time for the few players that will have any impact on this team (if we keep them) past two years…

    side note: as I watch this game I really hope we bench Henderson (still gets 30 mins a game or so) and start Neal over him…just to give this starting unit some shooting besides McRoberts and Kemba…when Al meets these type of good centers or defensive teams in general (which we will meet being a 7th-8th seed) we are going to need shooting bad.

  • Dave Walshy

    I’ve said multiple times Al’s minutes are pretty much exactly what they should be. I want Biyombo to get a few minutes each from Zeller and McBob at PF because there is no reason we shouldn’t be finding more minutes for him. I’m not even going to argue about Biz’s value anymore because it is pretty obvious at this point. He gets more rebounds per game than our starting PF in half the minutes. The only fantasy is that this teams “success” justifies all the short sightedness in the organization. Like charlottean pointed out, it took a 3 game winning streak to get this team within 5 games of .500 and some of you people act like we are just set and going to contend with our roster. This fluke of a tanking season in the east is the only reason we are anywhere near the playoffs. It is kind of comical, you act like the joke is on us because our record is 25-30, which is apparently good. I’m not even getting into our draft situation. That point has been made countless times.

  • Dave Walshy

    Healthy Rondo at his peak was better than Kemba now but I’m not sure Kemba won’t be just as good as him. Kemba is still getting better. He is one of those guys that improves every year and he has just as much if not more potential in my opinion. Rondo probably would be an upgrade at least in the short term but then our spacing issues would be even worse and I think we need to improve in other areas a lot more so I wouldn’t worry about getting a new PG.

  • NCTony

    I really don’t get you guys at all. They were not trading Rondo. We still have the Portland pick as they are starting to drop in standings, Detroit pick is top 8 protected so it’s still in play. Our pick may be lost .. We may start losing and we may still keep it.

    Spencer your another guy with fantasy stats… We would develop talent if we drafted it… Kemba.. I think we are bringing Zeller along the right way.. Same for Biyombo now. Our past picks were not great let’s just say that for the record. ( we forget Taylor out with injury jury still out).

    None of your trades make any sense to me. It takes two sides to make a trade…nor does your math add up on some of those trades. You had us on 3 game streak which would have meant 26-30 and now it’s a 4 game streak at 27-30. Just setting record straight for you truth stretchers…

    I’ve said Biyombos play was horrendous up to his benching, and not it’s back to where it should be. He’s a solid backup right now.

    Last two games were much improved for Zeller. He’s been much more aggressive on both ends of court and that leaves us with hope for progression and improvement.

    I’ve never said MKG is not a keeper, his offensive play needs lots of work. Playing Biz and MKG at same time is double teaming waiting to happen. in yesterday’s game MKGs man was always the double teamer on Al.

    You can have DJ AUGUSTINE .. Wow your the best talent evaluator and Bobcat front office hater in all of Mecklenburg County!!!!

  • NCTony

    Draft Round Pick Player Nationality Position School/Club Team
    2004 1 2 Emeka Okafor (from Los Angeles)[a] United States PF/C Connecticut
    2004 2 45 Bernard Robinson (from Milwaukee)[b] United States PF Michigan
    2005 1 5 Raymond Felton United States PG North Carolina
    2005 1 13 Sean May (from Phoenix)[c] United States PF North Carolina
    2006 1 3 Adam Morrison United States SF Gonzaga
    2006 2 50 Ryan Hollins (from Sacramento)[d] United States C UCLA
    2007 1 8 Brandan Wright (traded to Golden State)[e] United States SF North Carolina
    2007 1 22 Jared Dudley (from Cleveland)[f] United States SF Boston College
    2008 1 9 D. J. Augustin United States PG Texas
    2008 1 20 Alexis Ajinça (from Denver)[g] France C Hyères-Toulon (France)
    2008 2 38 Kyle Weaver United States PG Washington State
    2009 1 12 Gerald Henderson United States SG Duke
    2009 2 40 Derrick Brown (from New Jersey via Oklahoma City)[h] United States PF Xavier
    2009 2 54 Robert Vaden (from San Antonio,[i] traded to Oklahoma City)[j] United States SG UAB
    2011 1 9 Kemba Walker United States PG Connecticut
    2011 1 19 Tobias Harris (from New Orleans via Portland,[k] traded to Milwaukee)[l] United States SF Tennessee
    2011 2 39 Jeremy Tyler (traded to Golden State)[m] United States C Tokyo Apache (Japan)
    2012 1 2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist United States SF Kentucky
    2012 2 31 Jeffery Taylor Sweden/ United States SF Vanderbilt
    2013 1 4 Cody Zeller United States PF/C Indiana
    Notes[edit]

    Of all those talents we didn’t develop… I’d rather have Tobias Harris over Biz… We gave Okafor a shot.. Felton had a few average years and is now being run out of town.. We developed Hendo.. So of all of this I’d say Charlottean may have a valid point on DJ who we gave away for nothing, but at the time no one wanted hin otherwise both Indy and Toronto could have also traded him… The rest is history we just drafted poorly… Thus not a lot to develop.

    PS what’s this orange hat thing about don’t get the analogy… Other than yes I’m brilliant and York not…lol

  • NCTony

    Quote from Grizzlies coach

    QUOTABLE II: “The guy who really hurt us is [Michael] Kidd-Gilchrist. For a guy who you don’t guard him and you can play off of him, he goes and does a lot of the stuff that Tony Allen does, where he goes and gets them extra possessions. He’s a very good defender. He’s an energy guy. He got a lot of the 50-50 balls. I think he did a tremendous job of getting them a lot of extras.”
    – Grizzlies coach Davis Joerger

  • NCTony

    And to answer The best basketball executive critic in Mecklenburg county—

    What playoff game would we win with all: as of today we are 6th – like are chances vs Raptors

    vs.
    (1) INDIANA vs. (8) Brooklyn
    (Indiana won 4-0)
    vs.
    (2) MIAMI (1A) vs. (7) Atlanta
    (Miami leads 2-1)
    vs.
    (3) TORONTO vs. (6) Charlotte
    (Charlotte won 3-0)
    vs.
    (4) CHICAGO (1A) vs. (5) Washington
    (Washington leads 2-0)
    vs.
    (1) OKLAHOMA CITY (1H/1A) vs. (8) Dallas
    (Oklahoma City leads 1-0)
    vs.
    (2) SAN ANTONIO (1H/1A) vs. (7) Golden State
    (San Antonio leads 2-0)
    vs.
    (3) HOUSTON (1A) vs. (6) Phoenix
    (Series tied 1-1)
    vs.
    (4) LOS ANGELES (1A) vs. (5) Portland
    (Series tied 1-1)

  • NCTony

    Hate no spellcheck or edit on this… Should be what playoff games would we win with AL.. Whose defense has gotten better during the year…

  • Spencer/SDS

    None of your trades make any sense to me. It takes two sides to make a trade…nor does your math add up on some of those trades. You had us on 3 game streak which would have meant 26-30 and now it’s a 4 game streak at 27-30. Just setting record straight for you truth stretchers

    I stated 1 trade, the other (for rondo) was Charlottean’s possible trade scenario he wanted to see. My other was with GS, for Barnes which makes sense on a multitude of variable but whatever…Barnes has been reported unhappy with his role in GS, and could/may be causing issues in said locker room (who knows for sure). We would get Barnes, and Speights (who would be essentially a contract dump by GS)…they Get Henderson who would take Jordan Crawfords backup 2 spot and Barnes 6th man spot, while giving them (GS) the allowance to give Green (their defensive specialist) more playing time…Jordan is a JR Smith…a brick layer for future NBA stadiums while Henderson gives them a legit all rounder (other then the 3) backup scoring option….we get Barnes who is young…plus you give up Portlands, or Detroits (more likely Detroits pick) up for Barnes…This option was destroyed relatively quickly with their trade of Marshon brooks however…personally I thought that he was the main reason for that trade with the Celtics….at this point it makes no sense as to why they wasted so much for such a bad volume shooter in Jordan Crawford but whatever…

    Agree on hating the fact that there is no spell-checking/editing ability on this website…it was tried a yr ago but failed miserably.

    Side note: I see us losing to the Bulls in the post-season which is also highly likely at this point…we don’t want to see Brooklyn, Chicago, Miami or the Pacers (the last two for obvious reasons) in the playoffs IMO…Also: I believe Charlottean was talking about the media in general in labeling MKG a bust already…I haven’t seen you label him as such.

  • NCTony

    Here is where I’m coming from.

    To be realistic : we are coming off of 7 & 21 win seasons. Team basically tanked before tanking became in vogue.
    We got rid if mediocre talent, and started building via draft and FA.

    This team has a decent core and can continue to improve, provided we make better draft picks and use FA wisely, which this team has done.

    I have no delusions of grandeur that we can win the Obrien trophy yet, but the groundwork has been laid. With continuation of the plan in place with most likely 2 and possibly three picks plus $17.5 in cap space – McBob might opt out giving another 2.7.

    If we could get MKG develop some kind of jump shot we would be a lot better now. ( considering all his other intangibles he brings.)

    I think Zeller is getting meaningful quality minutes and lately he’s stepped up his intensity… Biz has been terrific his last 10 games or so since he was DNP vs sixers on 1/15. His minutes were sparse going into that game and after that game but ever since the 3-1 west coast Road trip… His play is much improved.

    I think a playoff run is good for us all, gets players motivated, fan base motivated, help organization financially and makes us more attractive to free agents.

    Harrison Barnes for Hendo straight up… I could live with but salary doesn’t work.

    I suspect we dump CDR for a veteran recently released like a Jamison for veteran experienced Big, unless it’s after a Gordon release….who by the way played hard and good defense for Ben. They would not allow him to shoot..

  • Dave Walshy

    Only Charlottean wanted the Rondo trade. I wasn’t personally referring to you with any MKG talk. That got started because someone on the podcats said he has peaked. I agree we have a decent core that can improve but the current core likely won’t improve enough to make a big splash. Sorry we were one game off on our record after the three game streak. I guess that invalidates our entire point. We were 26-30 HOORAY WE ARE A LEGIT PLAYOFF TEAM NOW. The point is that it is unlikely for us to improve through free agency. We did get Al, but those kinds of signing literally never happen for us outside of this one instance. The only way we can likely improve much is through the draft and we are more and more likely going to lose our pick. I’m happy the guys are playing well and we are clearly making improvements as the season progresses, but the fact is we are still 27-30 after the longest winning streak in like four years. We need another legit impact player, which we easily could get if we kept our pick. This core is good enough that with our potential assets we could literally be an actual contender but it is looking like those assets are just being squandered for pretty much no reason. That is what is so frustrating. They actually played the last three years very well and put us in a position where we could actually make the jump to being a real threat and then just said oh screw it lets go all in for one of the last playoff spots that are only even available because no one else in the conference wants them. In how many other seasons would this team be anywhere near being in the discussion for a playoff birth? If we weren’t in a situation where we would be straight up losing our pick I would be fine with how this season has went. I don’t think we are at the point where we need to tank for a higher pick, but we certainly don’t want to just completely lose what would be a top ten pick in one of the deepest drafts in years just to be able to say that the Hornets are a “playoff team”. It may not seem like much since we might be getting a 10th-12th pick from Detroit, but imagine how good things would be looking for next year if we had that and another top ten pick. We would be able to either just completely fill out our roster with quality players or even move up with a trade and draft a complete stud. The way things are going we are only going to be looking slightly better next year based off the improvement of our current core but that is about it. I have a really hard time believing that next season being nine games below .500 will be good for a playoff spot and .500 will be good enough for the fifth seed. I don’t want this team to be on a crash course back to mediocrity after they have put themselves in such a good position. I’m not trying to stop anyone from enjoying making the playoffs this year if it happens, but don’t be surprised if next year around this time we are playing .500 basketball and struggling to sneak into one of the final two playoffs spots with everyone wondering what happened…

  • Dave Walshy

    I live about an hour away from the Bankers Life Fieldhouse (Pacers home court) so if we make the playoffs I’ll get to see my favorite player in person for the first time ever. Still though, I can look beyond that and still wish we would have played the young guys all season instead of making a playoff push with the likes of McBob and Tolliver. I’d much rather wait and get to see my favorite player and favorite team (somewhat begrudgingly) playing Indiana in the second or third rounds in the future. If we don’t hold the 6th seed, which seems pretty unlikely to me, we are going to get swept in embarrassing fashion.

  • charlottean

    never in my right mind would i have expected the east to be so inept that being 3 games under .500 would lead to a 6 seed position this late in the year. that said…..it’s making A LOT OF the arguments against mine look better than they actually are.

    if we’re a 6 seed, we CAN win a playoff series, maybe even be competitive in a second because of momentum built (or lost by the opponent (especially if its miami))

    i am ALL about that scenario playing out. it’s just absolutely incredible and previously inconceivable that we would go 7-3 on this latest stretch and atlanta would be struggling the way they are and BK as mediocre as they are. we’re looking like we’re in great position to pull this off or maybe even that 5 spot. we have a gauntlet of games coming up where we could drop a stretch in a row, but if we win ANY of those…..we have a VERY soft schedule at the end of the year and we are clearly IN on going to the playoffs. I still hold steady that this was not the most productive way to build the team for longevity. there’s still a short sighted element to what’s going on but keep in mind that zeller and biz have been playing a little more lately than they were when i was complaining about it the most.

    as for the draft picks……

    okafor got the best shake and was an absolutely solid player and potential perennial all-star when we traded him. we did have him playing the 4 A LOT and didn’t do a whole lot to build his offense the way it could have been, but he definitely got the best shake out of any draft pick pre-kemba.

    felton was not playing early in his rookie year which made him look horrible next to paul and williams. those things matter. just the surface of it. guys like brandon jennings have 10-15 year careers off of what they did in the first 3 months of their career even though a guy like marquis teague might be just as good and just never get the same kind of chance to start on a bad team and stat stuff. felton started playing great the second half of his rookie year (look it up) and was looking like he was every bit the nba point guard paul was.

    then we have him playing the 2 his second year. brilliant. his development was horrible. while he’s having a horrible year this year, let’s remember that he had a GREAT year in new york his 6th season before he got rolled into the melo deal unwanted by denver and circumstance becomes him. that doesn’t happen if he’s given the chris paul treatment and we “brand” him as a franchise pg and untouchable in trades. perception is 99% of the game.

    morrison? are you serious? the guy was playing great ball leading up the injury and he was never given a chance to recover. he’s labeled a bust because we let that happen. the guy showed time and time again that he was better than nba talent but because we labeled him a bust, he never shook that label.

    you agree on augustin, you don’t see ajinca even though it’s right there in the same boat as augustin. he got less of a shake here and yet he’s somehow miraculously resurfaced on an nba roster in spite of what we did to his career early on.

    henderson? was he given demar derozan’s minutes/touches/shots? or did he not sit for 1.75 years and THEN start getting minutes but not exactly a full blown green light until……late last year?

    a lot of these guys AND kemba have been messed up by the coaching carousel. hendo is in his 5th year right? so counting back 6 years to duke, the guy is on his 5th coach in 6 years (K, brown, silas, dunlap, clifford). that’s good development? kemba and biz are on their 4th in 4 years. not to mention the carousel of the roster around these guys. there’s a reason why OKC has worked and why indiana has worked and why denver has worked and why portland has worked and why memphis was working before hollinger got there. that’s the model I recommended that we follow, because it’s been proven time and time and time again. what we’re doing now is working on some level but 27-30 is far from champagne popping and the whole point is…….is there really growth potential in mcroberts and jefferson and tolliver and others? or are we 27-30 starring down 27-30 at this time next year? that’s the reason why I stress the development of the guys we have. and it’s not just for the sake of winning WITH those guys. it’s because branding guys as “untouchable” and as “franchise pg” and BS like that…..equates to getting more value in trade offers than we get for biz who other teams view as a guy on the outside of our future plans. as a top 5 rebounder and top 5 shotblocker at age 21.

    there’s no reason why anybody should argue AGAINST player development. that’s easily the most retarded line of thought there is. even if you feel that we could trade and sign our way into a contender…….developing our assets equates to more value in return in trades. otherwise you’re making your cap space the ONLY asset you have.

    in regards to the rondo trade……i don’t see how anybody wouldn’t want that dude on their team. the celtics were not good these past several years because of pierce and garnett……this year’s nets team is evidence of that. this year’s celtics team is evidence of that. the guy is an absolute gamer. he’s like gerald wallace meets john stockton or some ish.

    and i wasn’t speaking on it as though he was the target. i was using him as an example for the type of major move we could have and should have made with gordon/sessions/mcroberts/haywood/etc. contracts. instead of settling for a 6-8 seed, we could have made a move that made us a top 4 eastern conference team for the next 5 years. and that’s what the goal should be at the end of the day. we had the assets and several of them went away thursday. draft picks become less attractive the closer you get to the draft assuming they aren’t top 10 picks. and even then they can lose a ton of value with the variables in play in the draft pool.

    i just want to see the team managed well and it hasn’t been managed well from 2004-when cho was hired. when cho was hired he started a process of all of the right things happening and this year was looking like it was going to be a solid 30-35 win season that had our young guys stepping up into legit nba players before breaking through next year as a perennial playoff core. they brought in a bunch of veterans and have relied on them more than they probably should have. they’re winning more games now because of it. but there have been many moments where it looked as though they were abandoning their young guys altogether.

    you don’t draft a guy of cody zeller’s talent at #4 and then not play him. it’s just nuts.

    and it doesn’t help that we could have had 2 lottery picks and now appear to not have any. the silver lining might be that detroit might be even worse next year than this year and the pick is only top 1 protected next year. so we could have a really good 1 in addition to our own 1 next year and get portland’s pick this year. it isn’t horrible. it’s way better than the years of trading expiring contracts for horrible long term contracts that nobody wants. it just seems like they had an obvious easy hand to play and they decided to try a more difficult route.

    it’s like j.r. smith pulling up for 3 on a fast break. if he makes it everybody celebrates his ballsy move. does that make it the smartest or most logical/probable play?

    zeller is an elite talent, mkg is an elite talent, biz is an elite talent……..the argument against playing them is for the purpose of winning right now. but playing them now leads to building a long term contender. it’s been proven time and time and time again. yet you keep arguing it. so we’re going to reinvent the wheel?

    oh right, i forgot…..adam morrison is a bust and it had nothing to do with our lack of patience and ability to develop our draft picks. just bad picks, right?

  • Dave Walshy

    Rondo is a great player. I didn’t think that specific trade was that necessary because PG is one of the positions we don’t really need to worry about improving, but I see what you mean now. It was a good example of the kind of trade we should have been going for. I was hoping for something big too since it seems like our draft pick is probably a lost cause. I am getting a little more optimistic about our current core due to how the offense has been coming along. Seems like Clifford is starting to figure out a system for them. I still think we would be much better off going forward if we did so with our young guys and got to keep our pick but it is what it is at this point. We have beaten this point to death. Only thing to do now is hope they keep improving and that this doesn’t all backfire terribly.

  • charlottean

    I feel like…..if MKG starts in 2 playoff series…..that’s going to give him some of that paul george boost that he experienced between year 2 and 3. and he’s younger than george was. so i’m on board if that’s what the outcome is……

    if it’s getting swept by indiana and he’s playing 20 minutes per game and biyombo and cody 8 mpg…..it’s very much so a waste of a season. especially when mcroberts has a great playoff series and opts out of his 2.7mm for next year. that actually might be a good thing now that i think that through…..josh plays well enough to force our hand in letting him go and going with zeller next year.

    there IS value in 2 things we’re doing…….by not having another crop of young draft picks coming in, we’re allowing our 4 or 5 guys to be the guys and not be looking over their shoulder at top 10 picks or even in the case of MKG…..be feeling like a wiggins or whoever is THE GUY and that he only has to be ONE OF the guys. our guys can continue to grow into roles without having them diluted by more supreme talent.

    the other angle is the contrarian approach….if everybody is smartening up to the model of building through the draft….building a different way may be easier to navigate and macguyver because its such a buyer’s market on other teams scraps. the problem with this approach is that only detroit’s championship was built that way. everybody else was built through the draft one way or another. even miami has guys like wade, haslem, chalmers, cole, jones, etc. who they drafted. if wade wasn’t drafted, they didn’t win the first one and lebron and bosh don’t join him for the next two. dallas had left draft picks they built with, but they had dirk and they used guys they drafted to get some of the other key pieces on that roster. they had guys they developed like barea and technically they drafted kidd.

    so it’s hard to buy into the contrary approach unless you feel like the goal of championship is unattainable or too expensive for this market, and you feel like you could reach consistent 6 seeds or better this way. i can buy that theory. but it’s giving up the chance at maximizing for only reasonable gains. and unsustainable ones at that.

    so i’m not completely against what is going on across the board. it just seems like it would have been a lot more probable to build something special if we’re adding a wiggins/exum/parker to the group we have, plus using 2 more picks and the expiring contracts to land a harden type deal simultaneously. i mean that could have easily been our reality this year and that’s what’s so frustrating. is jefferson better than biz right now? no doubt. dude is absolutely dominating offensively. un stoppable. but do we stand a good chance of winning a ring on his back? or with biz getting his ben wallace/horace grant/dennis rodman/tyson chandler hybrid on and having that budget for an elite perimeter scorer?

    you HAVE to think that 2 1′s and sessions could have gotten harrison barnes. and I just don’t see how they didn’t see such an urgency to make that big move before these assets expire or lose value as draft picks get lower. i just wanted to see them swing for the fences. If i was told that they did and they just failed, it would be a consolation, but it just seems like cho has this horrible reputation for negotiating way too far from reality.

    like when he had a deal with cleveland for the 4th and 24th picks for the 2nd pick and the same deal with portland for 6 and 11……and he insisted that the teams take back tyrus thomas to do the deal. that wasn’t even remotely close to a reasonable expectation. or a necessary one when it came down to the final minute. it seems probable that this is the type of stuff happening this session.

    indiana got turner for granger. and they’re buying out granger. philly gave away lavoy allen. we could have had turner coming off the bench as the backup pg instead of ridnour for the price of gordon and a 2nd rounder. AAAAAAND had his rights for the summer for sign and trade purposes. we keep missing these deals. we keep not getting top value and compensation for what we give up in comparison to other teams.

    gerald wallace got us 2 mediocre mid-late 1st round picks (20th – tobias harris and whatever this year’s 20 something will be) but portland turned him around for a top 10 pick that got them damian lillard. and they did so a year later meaning wallace was a year older at the time they got that and he was another year removed from an all-star year…..his reputation was slipping with the friction in portland over splitting time with batum. nothing for augustin, nothing for diaw, now nothing for gordon, nothing for felton, nothing for morrison, nothing for anybody really. we knew last year at the deadline when we got mcroberts that mullens was no longer wanted or needed. and there was some value for him even if as a 2nd round pick. then after he doesn’t play for several months, teams realize he can’t cut it on a horrible team (and mcroberts was outperforming him significantly). but if doc rivers thought he was worth signing AFTER all of that……he wouldn’t get ainge to give up a 2nd rounder (even if conditional) to get him BEFORE all of that? come on. we don’t have a shark in the front office that can compete with the likes of morey, buford, kupchak, presti, bird/pritchard, etc.

  • NCTony

    Some valid points on getting nothing in return for players except cap space I guess… I thought we got Rodmonovich for Adam which turned into Stephen Jackson who at the time made huge difference on that team for a year or so

  • Horncatsalive

    I feel like I should raise my voice like we are at a bar or something! We are all ignoring the pretty girl!

    Its obvious to me MJ just wants an uptick in momentum leading towards the return of the Buzz.

    My only argument against Rondo’s assists (really I think his only tangible asset) is that somebody has to be on the other end to make the shot! Dishing it to Hendo for the wide open look and Gerald just putting it on the floor is mind-numbing and a waste of a good pass. Our playmakers, our core, Walker and Al, can create their own shot and do it on the daily and yes, this takes time which equals ball holding. So Higgins decided why reach for someone who needs the ball to impact the game? And why do we want X person to take the ball out of Al and Walker’s hands?

    Sessions was good. I’ve enjoyed watching him play for a while, but his getting to the foul line (very unpredictable, can lead to great three-point plays or just turn overs) is not the direction we wanted to go in. I like MKG, he is lightening in a bottle, but like the quote Tony used, “You don’t have to guard him.” Thats a freebie for the defense to throw on Al or Walker. No more.

  • Dave Walshy

    Hopefully the presence of Neal with make Clifford feel less compelled to use Tolliver as a floor spacer and MKG will start getting 30+ minutes. That by itself would make me consider this is a good trade to be honest. They really need to let MKG loose.

  • charlottean

    that’s an interesting caveat that i didn’t even think about with the trade (regarding mkg’s minutes)

    as for morrison for radmonovic…..yeah we turned that into stephen jackson. so let’s run it back for clarification…….we took the #7 pick (brandan wright) and the #3 pick (adam morrison) and another 1st rounder (jared dudley) and turned that into boris diaw, stephen jackson, and acie law. jackson was here for 2 years instead of morrison being here for 10+. jackson was a better defender and athlete (although not elite by any stretch) but everything else, morrison was better. by far.

    that wouldn’t be bad trades if diaw wasn’t making 9 million a year and jackson like 8-10 or something. compared to rookie scale. and especially given that morrison could have done EVERYTHING jackson had done for longer and with a better attitude if he had just been given the chance. he showed it in european games and he showed it in summer league games and although everybody forgets it……he showed it in nba games. larry brown just hated that dude.

    3 1st rounders to grab diaw on a big contract and a guy that went undrafted and shoots up strip clubs that golden state was desperately just trying to unload.

    rondo creating shots for guys in rhythm absolutely holds value. he makes mediocre guys better because they don’t have to work to create shots for themselves. henderson would become a better 3 pt shooter in that scenario, but more valuable…..henderson would be wide open for that mid range jumper that he DOESN’T MISS. fg%’s go up on open spot up looks compared to contested created shots. he brings a lot of defense and can finish at the rim too. and he’s shown he can make 3′s in spurts, he just doesn’t take a lot of them. he is essentially a longer version of jason kidd. he made guys like kendrick perkins and avery bradley look better than they are and he lengthened KG and pierce’s careers apparently.

    as for not having to guard MKG, i think that’s a major misconception……early in the year he was knocking down that spot up corner 2 with solid regularity and if, when you swing the ball to him unguarded, he makes defenses that are out of position pay with his ability to get to the rim. he just flat out does not get enough touches. i keep hearing about how offensively limited he and biz are, yet they are converting buckets that other guys on our team aren’t. they aren’t shooting 30% from the field. and they bring so much value in lowering opponent’s fg%s and by creating possessions.

    it’s something like 75% of the games played are won by the team that gets the most possessions. guys like biz and MKG create possessions with their disrupting defense and offensive rebounding. MKG single handed created that big lead against detroit the other night with like 4 or 5 straight offensive boards or deflections. detroit didn’t even get a chance to play offense for a pretty significant stretch.

    people don’t want to believe it, but those 2 guys and zeller are just as talented as al and kemba and could be so much more so if guided properly. zeller and anthony bennett both could have been drafted by phoenix or sacramento or washington and been given the chance to play 30+ minutes every night and either would have won rookie of the year. they just aren’t playing. when they play, they produce.

  • NCTony

    Charlottean

    Again here is quote from Grizzlies coach not me. I was at game and watched his man essentially go to help out on Al, if he could develop a jump shot he’d be an two way all star. There still is time look at Griffen…

    QUOTABLE II: “The guy who really hurt us is [Michael] Kidd-Gilchrist. For a guy who you don’t guard him and you can play off of him, he goes and does a lot of the stuff that Tony Allen does, where he goes and gets them extra possessions. He’s a very good defender. He’s an energy guy. He got a lot of the 50-50 balls. I think he did a tremendous job of getting them a lot of extras.”
    – Grizzlies coach Davis Joerger

  • NCTony

    And for all the Tolliver Haters

    The most telling stat of Tolliver’s positive impact is the fact that when he is on the floor the Bobcats are +2.8 points better per 100 possessions. That means whenever he is on the floor the team is better by nearly 3 points. Three points is valuable in this league and unless you have been watching him all year you won’t really understand what he means to the Bobcats.

    His shooting has been more than vital to the success of this team, listen very closely to this next stat. In games where Anthony Tolliver hits two 3-pointers or more the Charlotte Bobcats have a record of 15-6. That means when he has it going the Bobcats are 9 games over 500. There is a correlation between his shooting and the Bobcats quality wins over the Mavericks, 2 versus the Warriors, 2 vs Raptors and Memphis Grizzlies. These are Charlotte’s best wins in terms of quality opponents and Tolliver has hit at least two 3-pointers in all of the wins I just mentioned.

  • Dave Walshy

    I watch most of our games. I dont really hate Tolliver. I hate that he takes so many of MKGs minutes. I understand that he is kind of a necessary evil. I still wouldnt play him quite as much as Clifford does but now that we have Neal they should be able to get the shooting we need on the floor without benching our best defender for more than half the game. Especially if Neal shoots like he has in the past. He should be a better option than Tolliver regardless and at a position that is easier to hide someone on defense, and not the position that MKG plays. Tolliver really is horrendous in every other aspect and i see just as many games where he throws up nothing but bricks as games where he lights it up. The threat itself is important but he really hurts us when he isnt knocking down shots.

  • NCTony

    Right now he is ranked 4th most accurate in League in 3 pt % @ .444

    That’s not too shabby

  • charlottean

    i’m by far NOT a tolliver hater. i’ve liked the dude since his rookie year. he’s an underdog who plays hard and plays smart. he’s a funny dude on top of that but keeps it serious ON the court.

    but here’s the truth: he’s way outperforming his career norms in regards to shooting. his previous career best was 41% and his career average is 35%. the guy WAS up near 47% or some ish a few weeks back before cooling off. as a stat guy, you HAVE to expect regression to mean rather than continued above normal performance.

    the 2.8 points per 100 possessions in +/- is easily the worst stat in the game that people put entirely too much stock into. you are giving him all of the credit for what he AND his teammates did on the floor PLUS what the opponents did. it was either james harden or jeff green who was last in the league in that stat one year and first the next with no major change to ANY OTHER measure. it’s way too circumstantial a stat, way to many variables to isolate and coaches and front offices are reading it like it’s the same as on base %. baseball has better stats because the game has isolated incidents (pitches, swings, fielding opportunities and throws, at bats, base stealing attempts, etc.) the ONLY isolated incidents in basketball are jump balls and free throws. the best measures you can look at are overall efficiencies and abilities, coupled with large sample sized shooting charts (for coaches to scheme towards players hot spots and players to practice their weak spots). all of that said…..and yes, i discredit the EFF out of his 2.8 per 100 +/- as completely negligible…….all of that said….the guy is shooting the ish out of the ball this year. true shooting of 63% is beyond solid. he doesn’t turn the ball over.

    anytime a perimeter guy is giving you nearly 1.2 PPP, you stand a big chance to win. perimeter scoring has a much wider margin than post scoring. which is why you see guys like jordan, durant, nash, curry, nowitzki, lebron, etc. dominate the league more than guys like jefferson or brook lopez. guys like olajuwon and shaq were always paired with an elite perimeter scorer AND were elite rebounder/defenders/passers.

    the problem with tolliver playing a lot of minutes is……. 1 – it’s short sighted to be taking minutes away from the star player that MKG can be in order to win a few more meaningless games this year.

    2 – tolliver is a 4 not a 3 and can’t guard many 3′s. definitely can’t guard any 2′s or 1′s, so when you have him on the perimeter defensively……he gets exposed. it doesn’t help when he plays with jefferson, that’s where a lot of those “layup lines” came from. that combo is just rough defensively.

    3 – the previously mentioned regression to the mean

    i hope they keep him around though. even as a 10th man in the rotation, he is a GREAT role player. he has that san antonio spurs type professionalism about playing small stretches of minutes that you have to love as a fan because that’s easily the hardest thing for a shooter to do (come in cold and knock down a few shots).

    guys like tolliver win you games and win you championships. they just don’t do so by playing 30 mpg. 100% of the complaints regarding tolliver playing too much have to do with MKG playing too little or zeller playing too little. if he was taking minutes from mcroberts, nooooooooooooooooooobody would be complaining.

    and to continue to ramble……mcroberts too is shooting career highs. has to be the jefferson effect there.

  • NCTony

    Another Crazy Stat you probably don’t give a lot of credence to is Win Shares and defensive win shares. Right now Jefferson has 13th best defensive win shares in league -

  • Dave Walshy

    Completely agree with Charlottean on Tolliver. It seems MKG rarely gets over 25 minutes, which is crazy to me. There really are times when Tolliver gets subbed into the game for MKG and then the other team just goes off on us getting easy shot after easy shot. Seems like he should be a more situational player. The kind of guy who sometimes doesn’t play at all, usually plays around 10-15 minutes, and on a good night when he is just making rain or his shooting is really needed like 25-30 minutes. I don’t think he should be averaging only four fewer minutes than MKG even if Taylor is out.

  • Dave Walshy

    How are defensive win shares calculated? I’ve wondered about that recently. I noticed the other day Kemba has more defensive win shares than MKG despite clearly not being the better defender. The fact that AJ is 13th best in the league makes me think its suspect. I mean, I don’t think his defense is quite as bad as advertised (or maybe we’ve just found the right defensive scheme to hide it) but he certainly isn’t anywhere near the top of the league on D.

  • charlottean

    How could anyone possibly trust that stat? I mean is it even remotely debatable? he’s just getting credit for clocking a lot of minutes in games that a lot of points were scored.

  • charlottean

    win shares is another stat that was made for baseball that basketball adopted and it doesn’t work the same.

    i mean the good part about win shares is that you can’t accumulate them if the team doesn’t win. the bad thing is…you can be giving credit to the wrong guy(s) as is the case with jefferson there. if you could have subbed biyombo in for every defensive possession and had jefferson play offense only…..they would have won A LOT more games by now.

  • NCTony

    Here is how it calculated:

    IV. Crediting Defensive Win Shares to Players

    A. 1973-74 to present NBA

    Crediting Defensive Win Shares to players is based on Dean Oliver’s Defensive Rating. Defensive Rating is an estimate of the player’s points allowed per 100 defensive possessions (please see Oliver’s book for further details). Here is a description of the process (once again using LeBron James in 2008-09 as an example):

    Calculate the Defensive Rating for each player. James’s Defensive Rating in 2008-09 was 99.1.
    Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (player minutes played / team minutes played) * (team defensive possessions) * (1.08 * (league points per possession) – ((Defensive Rating) / 100)). For James this is (3054 / 19780) * 7341 * ((1.08 * 1.083) – (99.1 / 100)) = 202.5. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
    Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.32 * (league points per game) * ((team pace) / (league pace)). For the 2008-09 Cavaliers this is 0.32 * 100.0 * (88.7 / 91.7) = 30.95.
    Credit Defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). James gets credit for 202.5 / 30.95 = 6.54 Defensive Win Shares.
    B. 1951-52 to 1972-73 NBA

    Prior to the 1973-74 season, the NBA did not track defensive rebounds, steals, or blocks, so allocating defensive credit is a difficult task. Nevertheless, here is the process for crediting Defensive Win Shares in those seasons (once again using Robertson in 1964-65 as an example):

    Calculate team marginal defense. Team marginal defense is equal to 1.08 * (league points per shot attempt) * (team field goal attempts + 0.44 * (team free throw attempts)) – (opponent points). If you’re wondering why we’re using team shot attempts as opposed to opponent shot attempts, the answer is (a) we don’t have opponent shot attempts prior to 1970-71 and (b) the system works better using team shot attempts. For the 1964-65 Royals we get 1.08 * 0.9578 * (7797 + 0.44 * 2866) – 8952 = 417.854.
    Calculate the player’s share of the team’s marginal defense. The player’s share of the team’s marginal defense is equal to 0.25 * ((minutes played) / (team minutes played)) + 0.5 * ((total rebounds) / (team total rebounds)) + 0.25 * ((assists) / (team assists)). How did I get those weights? Modern Defensive Win Shares are most dependent on minutes played, defensive rebounds, steals, and blocks. I regressed DWS on those stats and then found the relative importance of each regressor (approximately 25% for minutes played, 35% for defensive rebounds, 25% for steals, and 15% for blocks). Since those defensive statistics are not available for past seasons, I used total rebounds as a proxy for defensive rebounds and blocks; and assists as a proxy for steals. A couple more notes: (1) prior to the 1964-65 season, team minutes played were not an official statistic, so for those seasons estimate the team’s minutes played using the formula 5 * 48 * (team games) + 125; and (2) prior to the 1967-68 season, team total rebounds included team rebounds, so to account for this multiply the team total by 0.875. Getting back to our example, Robertson’s share on the 1964-65 Royals is equal to 0.25 * (3421 / 19325) + 0.5 * (674 / (0.875 * 5387)) + 0.25 * (861 / 1843) = 0.2325.
    Calculate marginal defense for each player. Marginal defense is equal to (team marginal defense) * (player share). For Robertson this is 417.854 * 0.2325 = 97.151. Note that this formula may produce a negative result for some players.
    Calculate marginal points per win. Marginal points per win reduces to 0.16 * (team points per game + opponent points per game). For the 1964-65 Royals this is 0.16 * (114.2 + 111.9) = 36.176.
    Credit defensive Win Shares to the players. Defensive Win Shares are credited using the following formula: (marginal defense) / (marginal points per win). Robertson gets credit for 97.151 / 36.176 = 2.69 Defensive Win Shares.

  • charlottean

    i know exactly how it is calculated. and it isn’t an isolated individual stat as you can see in the equation. it accumulates what happens while a guy is on the court. so al jefferson being a bad defender, can be paired with 4 good defenders and receive credit for the work THEY do to compensate for his inability or reluctance to play defense.

    jefferson gets a bloated win share number because he plays a lot of minutes in a slow it down grind it out style team play. he gets a ton of defensive rebounds by being big and being on the floor a lot and having good hands. that’s where the win shares come from.

    defensive win shares does not equal elite defender. nowhere in there does it isolate any variable around the player being given the credit. baseball is isolated, which is why these same formulas make sense in that sport. it doesn’t work that way in basketball and people continue to put stock into it.

    lebron gets a ton of win shares, so people think the formulas must work. they don’t. that said, you obviously can’t accumulate ANY win shares if you aren’t playing or you aren’t winning. the skew is where a slower pace team, we’re giving defensive win shares to the guy who should be getting the offensive win shares only.

  • charlottean

    jefferson has 4.6 win shares and .130 per 48
    biz has 2.5 win shares playing a fraction of the minutes and .143 per 48.

    you can’t buy into win shares AND dismiss biz simultaneously.