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Recap: Bobcats vs Pacers, Game 52

Boxscore of Charlotte Bobcats and Indiana Pacers – 02/09/2011

Score: 104-103 Indiana
Bobcats record: 22-30
Offensive Efficiency: 107.3
Defensive Efficiency: 110.6
Meritorious Player:
Gerald Wallace edges out Stephen Jackson for the award, with 22 points on 15 attempts, 9 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, a block and 0 turnovers. That’s more like it, Crash.

I’m going to be that guy – the Bobcats lost this one because of the refs.  I’m not the only one who feels that:

Well, it certainly looks like Darren Collison fouled Stephen Jackson, which would have meant three free throws for the Bobcats. And probably a win, which would have meant hanging on to the eighth playoff spot. So, pretty big no call.

via Wha’ Happened?: Boy band auditions | Blog Archive | The Basketball Jones | Blogs | TheScore.com.

And TheBasketballJones follows that up with a post that includes a great view of the play: Did Darren Collison foul Stephen Jackson? I say yes and here’s my response to those who say Jackson initiates the contact:  Jackson got his shoulders (and elbows) past Collison, Collison moves laterally across the court, and through Jackson’s arms, during the shot attempt, and never has established defensive position – Jackson is moving forwards, Collison is moving sideways.

Had the refs blown the whistle, the Bobcats win.  Down 1 with Jackson going to the line for 3, with Jackson shooting 82.1% from the line for the season, the Bobcats win this how many times out of a 1000?  I’ll tell you:

  • 55.3% of the time, Jackson is expected to hit all 3 attempts, and wins the game – 553 times
  • 36.0% of the time, Jackson hits 2 of 3, and wins the game – 360 times
  • 7.9% of the time, Jackson hits 1 of 3, sending the game to overtime – give the Pacers a 60% chance of winning the OT tossup because they are at home – so the Bobcats win this rhetorical 32 times
  • 0.5% of the time, Jackson misses all 3 and the Bobcats earn the loss they were handed

553 + 360 + 32 = 945 times – 945 times out of 1000 the Bobcats win this game (with a pessimistic look at OT odds).  But today the Bobcats have the loss and will just have a little harder road to the playoffs than they otherwise would have endured.